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Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?

Author

Listed:
  • Bram Gootjes

    (University of Groningen)

  • Jakob Haan

    (University of Groningen
    De Nederlandsche Bank
    CESifo)

  • Richard Jong-A-Pin

    (University of Groningen
    CESifo)

Abstract

We ask whether fiscal rules constrain incumbents from using fiscal policy tools for reelection purposes. Using data on fiscal rules provided by the IMF for a sample of 77 (advanced and developing) countries over the 1984–2015 period, we find that strong fiscal rules dampen political budget cycles. Our results are remarkably robust against inclusion of media freedom and the level of government debt as explanatory variables. Furthermore, we find a strong effect of fiscal rules in, amongst others, countries with fewer veto players, left-wing governments, established democracies, and more globalized economies. In addition, the effect of fiscal rules on political budget cycles seems to be stronger after the global financial crisis, reflecting post-crisis expansion in the number of countries with strong fiscal rules, notably in the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Bram Gootjes & Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2021. "Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:188:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-020-00797-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-020-00797-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political budget cycles; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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