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Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation By Leaders Versus Manipulation By Researchers? Evidence From A Meta‐Regression Analysis

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  • Pierre Mandon
  • Antoine Cazals

Abstract

Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitude are still in question. By conducting a systematic analysis of the existing literature, we intend to clarify the debate. Based on data collected from 1037 regressions in 46 studies, our meta‐analysis suggests that little, if any, systematic evidence can be found in the research record that national leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be reelected. However, it is much more clear that researchers selectively report that national leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be reelected. The publication selection bias highlighted has nonetheless been reduced during the past 25 years of research. We also show that the incumbents' strategies differ depending on which tools they use. Finally, the nature and quality of political institutions appear to be the factors which most affect the political budget cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Mandon & Antoine Cazals, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation By Leaders Versus Manipulation By Researchers? Evidence From A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 274-308, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:33:y:2019:i:1:p:274-308
    DOI: 10.1111/joes.12263
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    Cited by:

    1. Boly, Mohamed & Combes, Jean-Louis & Combes Motel, Pascale, 2023. "Does environment pay for politicians?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Florian Léon & Laurent Weill, 2024. "Elections hinder firms' access to credit," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 73-107, January.
    3. Peter Spáč, 2021. "Pork barrel politics and electoral returns at the local level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 479-501, September.
    4. Bram Gootjes & Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2021. "Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 1-30, July.
    5. George Petrakos & Kostas Rontos & Luca Salvati & Chara Vavoura & Ioannis Vavouras, 2022. "Domestic vs. External Economic Sectors and the Political Process: Insights from Greece," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Florian LEON & Laurent WEILL, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2021-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    7. Jakob de Haan & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2023. "Election-Induced Fiscal Policy Cycles in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10868, CESifo.
    8. Collazos-Ortiz, María Antonieta & Wong, Pui-Hang, 2024. "The effects of resource rents and elections on human capital investment in Colombia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Lucie Formanová & Martina Halamová & Břetislav Andrlík, 2020. "Utilization of a Local Coefficient for Immovable Property Tax in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(6), pages 973-986.
    10. Sebastian Blesse & Florian Dorn & Max Lay, 2023. "Do Fiscal Rules Undermine Public Investments? A Review of Empirical Evidence," ifo Working Paper Series 393, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ardanaz, Martín & Hallerberg, Mark & Scartascini, Carlos, 2020. "Fiscal consolidations and electoral outcomes in emerging economies: Does the policy mix matter? Macro and micro level evidence from Latin America," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Lamar Crombach & Frank Bohn, 2024. "Uninformed voters with (im)precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 275-311, March.
    14. Boll, David & Sidki, Marcus, 2021. "The influence of political fragmentation on public enterprises: Evidence from German municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Israel Garcia & Bernd Hayo, 2022. "The Influence of Politicians’ Sex on Political Budget Cycles: An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202223, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Yannis Psycharis & Stavroula Iliopoulou & Maria Zoi & Panagiotis Pantazis, 2021. "Beyond the socio‐economic use of fiscal transfers: The role of political factors in Greek intergovernmental grant allocations," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 982-1008, June.
    17. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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