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Multidimensional incongruence and vote switching in Europe

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  • Ryan Bakker

    (University of Georgia)

  • Seth Jolly

    (Syracuse University)

  • Jonathan Polk

    (University of Gothenburg)

Abstract

Does ideological incongruence hurt parties in elections? Research on the representational relationship between parties and voters suggests that ideological congruence can boost a party’s electoral prospects. However, while the mechanism is at the individual-level, most of the literature focuses on the party-level. In this article, we develop a set of hypotheses based on a multi-issue conception of party-voter congruence at the individual-level, and examine the electoral consequences of these varying congruence levels in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Consistent with our expectations, comparative analysis finds that ideological and issue-specific incongruence is a significant factor in voting behavior in the European Parliament elections. Although the substantive effects of incongruence are understandably small compared to partisanship, government, or EU performance evaluations, party-voter disagreement consistently matters, and voters’ issue salience is an important moderator of the impact of incongruence on vote choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Bakker & Seth Jolly & Jonathan Polk, 2018. "Multidimensional incongruence and vote switching in Europe," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 267-296, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:176:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-018-0555-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-018-0555-z
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