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Condorcet polling can yield serendipitous clues about voter views

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  • Richard Potthoff
  • Michael Munger

Abstract

Condorcet polling provides additional information about pairwise rankings often obscured in standard polls when there are three or more candidates. This paper analyzes an original dataset collected from Duke University students in North Carolina concerning the 2014 Senate race, wherein a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian contested the election. The results illustrate that Condorcet polling is feasible in such a context, and that the information provided changes the strategic calculus of voters in ways that may have a positive impact on the way votes are cast and choices considered. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Potthoff & Michael Munger, 2015. "Condorcet polling can yield serendipitous clues about voter views," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:165:y:2015:i:1:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-015-0285-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard F. Potthoff, 2014. "Condorcet Completion Methods that Inhibit Manipulation through Exploiting Knowledge of Electorate Preferences," Games, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-30, October.
    2. Richard Potthoff, 2013. "Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(1), pages 101-122, January.
    3. Richard Potthoff, 2011. "Condorcet Polling," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 67-86, July.
    4. Jeremy Burke & Curtis Taylor, 2008. "What’s in a poll? Incentives for truthful reporting in pre-election opinion surveys," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 221-244, October.
    5. Juan Restrepo & Rosalyn Rael & James Hyman, 2009. "Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 395-420, September.
    6. Cukierman, Alex, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and the Electoral Momentum of Public Opinion Polls," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 181-213, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard F. Potthoff, 2019. "Three Bizarre Presidential-Election Scenarios: The Perils of Simplism," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2018. "Trump, Condorcet and Borda: Voting paradoxes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 29-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polling; Politics; Condorcet; Elections; D72 (political processes); D83 (information/communication);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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