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Identifying the bandwagon effect in two-round elections

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  • Áron Kiss
  • Gábor Simonovits

Abstract

We propose a new method to test for the existence of the bandwagon effect, the notion that voters are more likely to vote for a given candidate if they expect the candidate to win. Two-round election systems with a large number of single-member districts offer an ideal testing ground because results from the first round provide a better benchmark for voter expectations than any possible alternative measure. Using data from the 2002 and 2006 general elections in Hungary, we find that the lead of a candidate in the first round is magnified by about 10 percent in the second round, controlling for country-wide swings of the electorate between the two rounds and for the behavior of voters of smaller parties. A separate exercise suggests that at least part of the effect is caused by the lower probability of individuals voting in the second round if their preferred candidate is likely to lose by a large margin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Áron Kiss & Gábor Simonovits, 2014. "Identifying the bandwagon effect in two-round elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 327-344, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:160:y:2014:i:3:p:327-344
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-013-0146-y
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    6. Robert Hodgson & John Maloney, 2013. "Bandwagon effects in British elections, 1885–1910," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 73-90, October.
    7. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2006. "The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 461-483, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Di & Lu, Jiahui & Zhong, Ying, 2023. "Futile or fertile? The effect of persuasive strategies on citizen engagement in COVID-19 vaccine-related tweets across six national health departments," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    3. Kim, Jikyung (Jeanne) & Dong, Hang & Choi, Jeonghye & Chang, Sue Ryung, 2022. "Sentiment change and negative herding: Evidence from microblogging and news," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 364-376.
    4. Alberto Grillo, 2017. "Risk aversion and bandwagon effect in the pivotal voter model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 465-482, September.
    5. Cécile Aubert & Huihui Ding, 2022. "Voter conformism and inefficient policies," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 59(1), pages 207-249, July.
    6. Leontiou, Anastasia & Manalis, Georgios & Xefteris, Dimitrios, 2023. "Bandwagons in costly elections: The role of loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 471-490.
    7. Riako Granzier & Vincent Pons & Clemence Tricaud, 2023. "Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 177-217, October.
    8. Somdeep Chatterjee & Jai Kamal, 2021. "Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 431-453, September.
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    10. Bartolozzi, D. & Gara, M. & Marchetti, D.J. & Masciandaro, D., 2022. "Designing the anti-money laundering supervisor: The governance of the financial intelligence units," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1093-1109.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bandwagon effect; Underdog effect; Two-round elections; Runoff; Turnout; West Coast effect; D72; D80;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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