IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v61y2016icp130-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Saving for a rainy day: Estimating the needed size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Bo

Abstract

Rainy day funds (RDFs) are potentially an important countercyclical tool for states to stabilize their budgets and the overall economy during economic downturns. However, how much each state needs to save in its RDF has become an increasingly important yet unresolved policy question. To address this issue, this paper develops some potential target RDF levels for each U.S. state, based on both the estimated short-term revenue component associated with business cycles and the extent of states’ preferences for stable tax rates and expenditure. The analysis shows that, in the last 25 years, at least 21 states never saved enough in their RDFs to offset revenue shortfalls from trend for each downturn period. The paper also provides policy recommendations on reforming the RDF caps.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Bo, 2016. "Saving for a rainy day: Estimating the needed size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 130-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:130-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046216301727
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wagner, Gary A & Elder, Erick M., 2007. "Revenue Cycles and the Distribution of Shortfalls in U.S. States: Implications for an "Optimal" Rainy Day Fund," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(4), pages 727-742, December.
    2. Knight, Brian & Levinson, Arik, 1999. "Rainy Day Funds and State Government Savings," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(3), pages 459-472, September.
    3. Wagner, Gary A., 2004. "The Bond Market and Fiscal Institutions: Have Budget Stabilization Funds Reduced State Borrowing Costs?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 57(4), pages 785-804, December.
    4. Richard H. Mattoon, 2003. "Creating a national state rainy day fund: a modest proposal to improve future state fiscal performance," Working Paper Series WP-03-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Christian Gonzalez & Arik Levinson, 2003. "State Rainy Day Funds and the State Budget Crisis 2002-?," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    6. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
    7. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    8. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    9. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1991. "Growth and Variability of State Individual Income and General Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 44(1), pages 55-66, March.
    10. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    11. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index, "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    13. Yilin Hou, 2013. "State Government Budget Stabilization," Studies in Public Choice, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-6061-9, March.
    14. Knight, Brian & Levinson, Arik, 1999. "Rainy Day Funds and State Government Savings," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 3), pages 459-72, September.
    15. Wagner, Gary A., 2003. "Are state budget stabilization funds only the illusion of savings?: Evidence from stationary panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 213-238.
    16. Erick M. Elder & Gary A. Wagner, 2013. "Revenue Cycles and Risk-Sharing in Local Governments: An Analysis of State Rainy Day Funds," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(4), pages 939-960, December.
    17. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M.H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
    18. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
    19. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "The Meaning of Long-Term Trends," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 36-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1991. "Growth and Variability of State Individual Income and General Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 44(1), pages 55-66, March.
    21. Clemens, Jeffrey, 2013. "State Fiscal Adjustment During Times of Stress: Possible Causes of the Severity and Composition of Budget Cuts," MPRA Paper 55921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
    23. Yilin Hou, 2005. "Fiscal Reserves and State Own-Source Expenditure in Downturn Years," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(1), pages 117-144, January.
    24. Howard Chernick & Adam Langley & Andrew Reschovsky, 2012. "Predicting the Impact of the U.S. Housing Crisis and "Great Recession" on Central City Revenues," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 42(3), pages 467-493, July.
    25. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases Over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 535-552, December.
    26. Gary A. Wagner & Erick M. Elder, 2005. "The Role of Budget Stabilization Funds in Smoothing Government Expenditures over the Business Cycle," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(4), pages 439-465, July.
    27. Gary Wagner & Russell Sobel, 2006. "State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 177-199, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kawika Pierson & Jon C. Thompson & Fred Thompson, 2024. "Do what we did last year, but do not stray too far from the pack: A behavioral public finance approach to municipal cash reserves," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 786-803, June.
    2. Wenchi Wei & Dwight V. Denison, 2019. "State Rainy Day Funds and Government General Fund Expenditures: Revisiting the Stabilization Effect," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(3), pages 465-492, May.
    3. Christian Buerger & Vincent Reitano & Ciana Sorrentino, 2022. "State fiscal reserves: Supplementation and substitution over economic boom and bust years," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 98-118, March.
    4. Etienne Farvaque & Hira Iqbal & Nicolas Ooghe, 2020. "Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03128875, HAL.
    5. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bo Zhao, 2019. "Consequences of state disinvestment in public higher education: lessons for the New England states," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 19-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bo Zhao, 2014. "Saving for a rainy day: estimating the appropriate size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds," Working Papers 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Yilin Hou, 2005. "Fiscal Reserves and State Own-Source Expenditure in Downturn Years," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(1), pages 117-144, January.
    3. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
    4. Christian Buerger & Vincent Reitano & Ciana Sorrentino, 2022. "State fiscal reserves: Supplementation and substitution over economic boom and bust years," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 98-118, March.
    5. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    6. Gary Wagner & Russell Sobel, 2006. "State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 177-199, January.
    7. Christopher Biolsi & H. Youn Kim, 2021. "Analyzing state government spending: balanced budget rules or forward-looking decisions?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 1035-1079, August.
    8. di Bella, Enrico & Gandullia, Luca & Leporatti, Lucia, 2014. "Short and long run income elasticity of gambling tax bases: evidence from Italy," MPRA Paper 73757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Harvey Cutler & Martin Shields & Stephen Davies, 2018. "Can State Tax Policy Increase Economic Activity and Reduce Inequality?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 142-164, March.
    10. Soyoung Park & Sungchan Kim, 2022. "The Effects of Fiscal Rules Based on Revenue Structure: Evidence from U.S State Governments," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 763-781, October.
    11. Thomas A. Garrett & Mark W. Nichols, 2019. "The Behavior Of Casino Gaming Revenue Over The Business Cycle Considering Alternative Measures Of “Income”," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 274-296, April.
    12. Igor Goncharov & Martin Jacob, 2014. "Why Do Countries Mandate Accrual Accounting for Tax Purposes?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(5), pages 1127-1163, December.
    13. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M. H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi‐State Analysis of Long‐Run and Short‐Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
    14. Wilson, Matthew, 2023. "State government saving over the business cycle," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Yota Deli & Derek Lambert & Martina Lawless & Kieran McQuinn & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2017. "How Sensitive is Irish Income Tax Revenue to Underlying Economic Activity?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 317-336.
    16. Jeffrey Clemens & Benedic Ippolito, 2018. "Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for State Government Budgets," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 135-172.
    17. Gary A. Wagner & Erick M. Elder, 2005. "The Role of Budget Stabilization Funds in Smoothing Government Expenditures over the Business Cycle," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(4), pages 439-465, July.
    18. Richard R. Hawkins, 2000. "Price Elasticities in Consumer Sales Tax Revenue," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(2), pages 171-184, March.
    19. Wagner, Gary A., 2003. "Are state budget stabilization funds only the illusion of savings?: Evidence from stationary panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 213-238.
    20. Craig, Steven G. & Hemissi, Wided & Mukherjee, Satadru & Sørensen, Bent E., 2016. "How do politicians save? Buffer-stock management of unemployment insurance finance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 18-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E32; E63; H71; H72; Rainy day funds; Budget stabilization funds; Revenue cyclicality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:130-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.