IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v43y2024i4d10.1007_s11113-024-09892-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Michael P. Cameron

    (University of Waikato
    University of Waikato)

  • Jacques Poot

    (University of Waikato
    University of Waikato)

Abstract

In this paper we focus on modelling and forecasting gross interregional migration in a way that can be embedded within multiregional population projections. We revisit, and apply, a family of spatial interaction models first formulated during the 1970s. The classic gravity model—in which migration is positively related to the populations of sending and receiving areas, but inversely related to various types of spatial friction associated with migrating between them—is a special case that is nested within this family of models. We investigate which member of the family of models gives the best fit when modelling five-year migration flows between the 66 Territorial Authorities (TAs) of Aotearoa New Zealand, using 2013 and 2018 census data. We find that predicting migration between two TAs can be improved by taking into account, firstly, an index of the ‘draw’ from all other TAs when modelling out-migration of any TA and, secondly, an index of the ‘competitiveness’ of a TA vis-à-vis all other TAs when modelling in-migration of any TA. We highlight the properties of the statistically-preferred model by simulating the impact on internal migration of an exogenous increase in Auckland’s population. In this model, such a population change affects not only migration flows from and to Auckland, but also migration between other TAs. The usefulness of this approach for population projections is assessed by forecasting the 2013–18 migration matrix by means of 2013 census data only. In this specific case, the model outperforms the classic gravity model in terms of forecasting gross migration, but not net migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2024. "Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-37, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09892-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09892-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09892-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-024-09892-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raul Ramos, 2016. "Gravity models: A tool for migration analysis," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 239-239, February.
    2. James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2010. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-2186, December.
    3. Poot, Jacques & Alimi, Omoniyi & Cameron, Michael P. & Maré, David C., 2016. "The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 36, pages 63-86.
    4. Poot, Jacques, 1986. "A System Approach to Modelling the Inter-urban Exchange of Workers in New Zealand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 249-274, August.
    5. Peter Nunns, 2021. "The causes and economic consequences of rising regional housing prices in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 66-104, January.
    6. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    8. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 1987. "Dynamics of generalised spatial interaction models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 367-390, August.
    9. Jacob J. de Vries & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 2001. "Alonso's Theory of Movements: Developments in Spatial Interaction Modeling," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, November.
    10. Patrice Dion, 2017. "An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(6), pages 871-901, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "The evolution of structural gravity: The workhorse model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 578-603, October.
    2. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Benedikt Heid & Frank Stähler, 2024. "Disentangling Frictions Across the World: Markups Versus Trade Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11420, CESifo.
    4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    5. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    6. Iliev, Dragomir & Stefanov, Galin & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Bulgaria’S Trade Borders With The Eu An Application Of The Empirical Gravity Model Of Trade," Business Management, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1-3.
    7. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    9. Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik & Henn, Christian, 2018. "Peeling away the layers: Impacts of durable tariff elimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 259-276.
    10. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    11. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.
    12. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    13. Jacopo Timini & Nicola Cortinovis & Fernando López Vicente, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of trade agreements with labour provisions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2820-2853, September.
    14. Márquez-Ramos, Laura & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Suárez-Burguet, Celestino, 2012. "Trade policy versus trade facilitation: An application using good old OLS," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-38.
    15. Fabien Candau & Elisa Dienesch, 2015. "Spatial distribution of skills and regional trade integration," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 451-488, March.
    16. Fontagné, Lionel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2021. "GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Stefan Borsky & Andrea Leiter & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2018. "Product quality and sustainability: The effect of international environmental agreements on bilateral trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3098-3129, November.
    18. Rahel Aichele, 2013. "Trade, Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage - Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 49.
    19. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Devashish Mitra & Cong S. Pham, 2017. "The Effects of Terror on International Air Passenger Transport: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2017-2, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Rosmaiza Abdul Ghani & Michael P. Cameron & William Cochrane & Matthew Roskruge, 2020. "The Causal Impact of Trade on Migration: A Gravity Model Estimation," Working Papers in Economics 20/01, University of Waikato.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09892-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.