IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v33y2014i3p393-418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Zsolt Spéder
  • Balázs Kapitány

Abstract

Our paper focuses on the realization of fertility intentions, exploring a new aspect of the post-communist fertility transition. By making use of a follow-up study, it was possible to compare five European countries and to analyze the chances of realizing short-term, time-dependent fertility intentions. There is always a difference between intention and behavior. It is partly due to demographic and social factors, such as age, parity, partnership status, but once these are accounted for, important differences remain between western European and post-communist countries. In the period after the turn of the millennium, chances of realizing intentions are significantly lower in post-communist countries than in western European countries. The lower chance of realization is a consequence of social anomie originating from discrepancy between slow value shift and the increased dynamism of structural changes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2014. "Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(3), pages 393-418, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:33:y:2014:i:3:p:393-418
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-013-9313-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11113-013-9313-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-013-9313-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2005. "Does Economic Uncertainty Affect the Decision to Bear Children? Evidence from East and West Germany," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp788, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    3. Gerard Roland, 2010. "The Long-Run Weight of Communism or the Weight of Long-Run History?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-083, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Alberto Alesina & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, 2007. "Goodbye Lenin (or Not?): The Effect of Communism on People," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1507-1528, September.
    5. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    6. Elena Koytcheva & Dimiter Philipov, 2008. "Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(13), pages 361-402.
    7. Brienna Perelli-Harris, 2008. "Ukraine: On the border between old and new in uncertain times," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(29), pages 1145-1178.
    8. Roland, Gerald, 2010. "The Long-Run Weight of Communism or the Weight of Long-Run History?," WIDER Working Paper Series 083, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Irena Kotowska & Janina Jóźwiak & Anna Matysiak & Anna Baranowska-Rataj, 2008. "Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(22), pages 795-854.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Nicola Fuchs-Schundeln, 2005. "Good bye Lenin (or not?): The effect of Communism on people's preferences," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2076, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Sunnee Billingsley, 2010. "The Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(2), pages 193-231, April.
    12. Laurent Toulemon & Maria Rita Testa, 2006. "Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 41-75.
    13. Andres Vikat & Zsolt Spéder & Gijs Beets & Francesco Billari & Christoph Bühler & Aline Désesquelles & Tineke Fokkema & Jan M. Hoem & Alphonse MacDonald & Gerda Neyer & Ariane Pailhé & Antonella Pinne, 2007. "Generations and Gender Survey (GGS)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(14), pages 389-440.
    14. S. Philip Morgan & Heather Rackin, 2010. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 91-118, March.
    15. Arland Thornton & Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "Sweeping Changes in Marriage, Cohabitation and Childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework [Transformations radicales du mariage, de la cohabi," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 123-156, May.
    16. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(7), pages 139-170.
    17. Sobotka, Tomáš, 2002. "Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries. Evidence and interpretation," Research Reports 02-01, University of Groningen, Population Research Centre (PRC).
    18. Charles Westoff & Norman Ryder, 1977. "The Predictive Validity Of Reproductive Intentions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 431-453, November.
    19. Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "The Effect of Competing Intentions and Behaviour on Short-Term Childbearing Intentions and Subsequent Childbearing [L’effet des intentions et des comportements concurrents sur les intentions de pro," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 525-548, November.
    20. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0361 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:dgr:rugprc:02-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, October.
    23. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zsolt Spéder & Lajos Bálint, 2024. "Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(5), pages 1-49, October.
    2. Maria Rita Testa & Francesco Rampazzo, 2018. "From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 177-198.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2012. "Realising birth intentions in European comparison – understanding the postcommunist fertility transition," Working Papers on Population, Family and Welfare 15, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.
    2. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    3. Anna Matysiak, 2011. "Fertility Developments In Central And Eastern Europe: The Role Of Work–Family Tensions," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 54(5), pages 7-30.
    4. Jan M. Hoem & Cornelia Mureşan & Mihaela Hărăguş, 2013. "Recent features of cohabitational and marital fertility in Romania," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Zsolt Spéder & Lajos Bálint, 2024. "Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(5), pages 1-49, October.
    6. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2009. "How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment, Bringing Forward," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 503-523, November.
    7. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(7), pages 139-170.
    8. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    9. Mathias Lerch, 2013. "Fertility Decline During Albania’s Societal Crisis and its Subsequent Consolidation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 195-220, May.
    10. Victor Agadjanian & Premchand Dommaraju, 2011. "Culture, Modernization, and Politics: Ethnic Differences in Union Formation in Kyrgyzstan [Culture, modernisation et politiques: différences ethniques dans la formation des unions au Kirghizstan]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 79-101, February.
    11. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
    12. Dimiter Philipov & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2008. "Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(62), pages 2057-2114.
    13. Júlia Mikolai, 2012. "With Or Without You. Partnership Context Of First Conceptions And Births In Hungary," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 55(5), pages 37-60.
    14. Tomáš Lichard & Filip Pertold & Samuel Škoda, 2021. "Do women face a glass ceiling at home? The division of household labor among dual-earner couples," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1209-1243, December.
    15. Sunnee Billingsley, 2010. "The Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(2), pages 193-231, April.
    16. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    17. Theodore P. Gerber & Danielle Berman, 2010. "Entry to Marriage and Cohabitation in Russia, 1985–2000: Trends, Correlates, and Implications for the Second Demographic Transition," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 3-31, February.
    18. Daniele Vignli & Letizia Mencarini & Giammarco Alderotti, 2018. "Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?," Working Papers 114, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    19. Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Theories on fertility intentions: a demographer’s perspective," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 37-45.
    20. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria [Attitudes, normes et contrôle perçu du comportement: Une explication des intentions de fécondité en ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 439-465, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:33:y:2014:i:3:p:393-418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.