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Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends

Author

Listed:
  • Dimiter Philipov

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Aiva Jasilioniene

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

Abstract

The paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate a large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables describing various life course events: leaving home and separation from the parental family, entry into union, first and second childbirth, divorce. Life tables are constructed for real cohorts as well as for synthetic cohorts. We study four real cohorts, born in 1940-44, 1950-54, 1960-64 and 1970-74. Synthetic-cohort life tables are constructed for three periods of time, referring to the pre-transitional demographic situation (1985-1989), the beginning of the transition (1990-1994) and recent demographic developments (1999-2003). We study also Roma and Turkish ethnic groups in Bulgaria. The life tables deliver detailed information that is otherwise unavailable. Our tentative findings indicate that societal transformation had a stronger impact on family-related behavior in the Bulgarian population than in the population of Russia. There is evidence that in some aspects Bulgaria is lagging behind other former socialist and Western European countries where the second demographic transition is more advanced. Evidence also suggests that Russia is lagging behind Bulgaria. However, certain specific features distinctive to Russia, such as the low level of childlessness, a drastic drop in second and subsequent births, and very high divorce rates even compared to Western European countries (it is a long-standing, not just recent trend), lead us to think that Russia may have a model of change particular to the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimiter Philipov & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2008. "Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(62), pages 2057-2114.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:19:y:2008:i:62
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.62
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(7), pages 139-170.
    2. Dimiter Philipov & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2007. "Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: a life table description of recent trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    4. Johan Surkyn & Ron Lesthaeghe, 2004. "Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(3), pages 45-86.
    5. Elena Koytcheva & Dimiter Philipov, 2008. "Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(13), pages 361-402.
    6. Dimiter Philipov & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2001. "Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-60, March.
    7. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Pau Baizán Munoz, 2001. "Leaving home in Europe: the experience of cohorts born around 1960," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. repec:cai:poeine:pope_304_0451 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sergei Scherbov & Harrie van Vianen, 2004. "Marriage in Russia: a reconstruction," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(2), pages 27-60.
    10. Gunnar Andersson & Dimiter Philipov, 2002. "Life-table representations of family dynamics in Sweden, Hungary, and 14 other FFS countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(4), pages 67-144.
    11. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    12. Vincenzo Coviello & May Boggess, 2004. "Cumulative incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 103-112, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Victor Agadjanian, 2015. "Between Tradition and Modernity: Marriage Dynamics in Kyrgyzstan," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 861-882, June.
    2. Ekaterina Mitrofanova & Alyona Artamonova, 2016. "The perspectives of family policy in Russia amid increasing cohabitation," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 5(1), pages 47-63, June.
    3. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria [Attitudes, normes et contrôle perçu du comportement: Une explication des intentions de fécondité en ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 439-465, November.
    4. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Theodore Gerber, 2011. "Nonmarital Childbearing in Russia: Second Demographic Transition or Pattern of Disadvantage?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 317-342, February.
    5. Jan M. Hoem & Cornelia Mureşan & Mihaela Hărăguş, 2013. "Recent features of cohabitational and marital fertility in Romania," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Mikucka, Malgorzata, 2015. "How does parenthood affect life satisfaction in Russia?," MPRA Paper 65376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arland Thornton & Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "Sweeping Changes in Marriage, Cohabitation and Childbearing in Central and Eastern Europe: New Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework [Transformations radicales du mariage, de la cohabi," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 123-156, May.
    8. Gina Potârcă & Melinda Mills & Laurent Lesnard, 2013. "Family Formation Trajectories in Romania, the Russian Federation and France: Towards the Second Demographic Transition? [Trajectoires de formation de la famille en Roumanie, en Fédération de Russie," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 69-101, February.
    9. Evgeny M. Andreev & Elena Churilova & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2022. "Partnership Context of First Births in Russia: The Enduring Significance of Marriage," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 37-58, March.
    10. Theodore P. Gerber & Danielle Berman, 2010. "Entry to Marriage and Cohabitation in Russia, 1985–2000: Trends, Correlates, and Implications for the Second Demographic Transition," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 3-31, February.
    11. Ryohei Mogi & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2018. "Expected years ever married," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(47), pages 1423-1456.
    12. Sebastian Klüsener & Aiva Jasilioniene & Victoriya Yuodeshko, 2019. "Retraditionalization as a pathway to escape lowest-low fertility? Characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom”," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; life tables; Russia; Bulgaria; union formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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