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Policy persistence, risk estimation and policy underreaction

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  • Moshe Maor

Abstract

In recent years, there has been remarkable progress in our understanding of policy persistence, on the one hand, and of the psychological phenomenon of underreaction, on the other. Surprisingly, there has been no attempt to use robust findings, derived from these efforts, in order to understand the nuances of policy underreaction. Policy underreaction refers to systematically slow and/or insufficient response by policymakers to increased risk or opportunity, or no response at all. This article tries to give the concept of policy underreaction a robust analytical identity by integrating cognitive, social, psychological and emotional variables in the explanation of policy underreaction and by introducing a variation across different types of contextual sources of policy persistence as explanatory variables of this phenomenon. It develops an analytical framework that revolves around two key elements of decision making in situations of risk unfolding over time: (1) policymakers’ underestimation and accurate estimation of increased risks and (2) intra- and extra-organizational sources of policy persistence. Based on these dimensions, the article identifies and illustrates four distinct modes of policy underreaction which reflect differences in the nature of implemented policy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Moshe Maor, 2014. "Policy persistence, risk estimation and policy underreaction," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 47(4), pages 425-443, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:policy:v:47:y:2014:i:4:p:425-443
    DOI: 10.1007/s11077-014-9203-8
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    Cited by:

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    3. Moshe Maor, 2020. "Policy over- and under-design: an information quality perspective," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 53(3), pages 395-411, September.
    4. Cristiano Codagnone & Francesco Bogliacino & Camilo Gómez & Frans Folkvord & Giovanni Liva & Rafael Charris & Felipe Montealegre & Francisco Lupiañez Villanueva & Giuseppe A. Veltri, 2021. "Restarting “Normal” Life after Covid-19 and the Lockdown: Evidence from Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 241-265, November.
    5. Francesco Bogliacino & Rafael Charris & Camilo Gómez & Felipe Montealegre & Cristiano Codagnone, 2021. "Expert endorsement and the legitimacy of public policy. Evidence from Covid19 mitigation strategies," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3-4), pages 394-415, April.
    6. Ching Leong & Michael Howlett, 2017. "On credit and blame: disentangling the motivations of public policy decision-making behaviour," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 50(4), pages 599-618, December.
    7. Fabrizio De Francesco & Martino Maggetti, 2018. "Assessing disproportionality: indexes of policy responses to the 2007–2008 banking crisis," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 51(1), pages 17-38, March.
    8. Moshe Maor, 2017. "The implications of the emerging disproportionate policy perspective for the new policy design studies," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 50(3), pages 383-398, September.
    9. Katie Attwell & Tauel Harper & Marco Rizzi & Jeannette Taylor & Virginia Casigliani & Filippo Quattrone & PierLuigi Lopalco, 2021. "Inaction, under-reaction action and incapacity: communication breakdown in Italy’s vaccination governance," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(3), pages 457-475, September.
    10. Moshe Maor & Tereza Capelos, 2023. "Symposium: Affect and emotions in policy dynamics," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 56(3), pages 439-448, September.
    11. Carsten Daugbjerg & Allan McConnell, 2021. "Rethinking disproportionate policy making by introducing proportionate politics," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(3), pages 691-706, September.
    12. Ping Guo & Huimin Li & Guangmin Zhang & Yang Zhang, 2019. "Exploring Critical Variables That Affect the Policy Risk Level of Industrial Heritage Projects in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Azad Singh Bali & Michael Howlett & Jenny M Lewis & M Ramesh, 2021. "Procedural policy tools in theory and practice [The stick, the carrot, and other strategies: A theoretical analysis of governmental intervention]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 40(3), pages 295-311.

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