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Does the Precision of News Affect Market Underreaction? Evidence from Returns Following Two Classes of Profit Warnings

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  • George Bulkley
  • Renata Herrerias

Abstract

We evaluate whether the market reacts rationally to profit warnings by testing for subsequent abnormal returns. Warnings fall into two classes: those that include a new earnings forecast, and those that offer only the guidance that earnings will be below current expectations. We find significant negative abnormal returns in the first three months following both types of warning. There is also evidence that underreaction is more pronounced when the disclosure is less precise. Abnormal returns are significantly more negative following disclosures that offer only qualitative guidance than when a new earnings forecast is included.

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  • George Bulkley & Renata Herrerias, 2005. "Does the Precision of News Affect Market Underreaction? Evidence from Returns Following Two Classes of Profit Warnings," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 603-624, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:11:y:2005:i:5:p:603-624
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1354-7798.2005.00300.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Donker, Han & Ng, Alex & Shao, Pei, 2020. "Borrower distress and the efficiency of relationship banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Cox, Raymond A.K. & Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Nofsinger, John, 2017. "The Bad, the boom and the bust: Profit warnings over the business cycle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 13-19.
    3. François Aubert & Waël Louhichi, 2020. "Why Do Firms Release Profit Warnings?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1056-1067.
    4. Ilyas El Ghordaf & Abdelbari El Khamlichi, 2021. "Profit warnings and stock returns: Evidence from moroccan stock exchange," Papers 2111.06655, arXiv.org.
    5. Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Karahan, Gökhan, 2017. "Do voluntary disclosures of bad news improve liquidity?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 16-29.
    6. Forbes, William & Hudson, Robert & Skerratt, Len & Soufian, Mona, 2015. "Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    7. Matthew Church & Han Donker, 2010. "Profit warnings: will openness be rewarded?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 633-637.
    8. Ammann, Manuel & Frey, Roman & Verhofen, Michael, 2012. "Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?," Working Papers on Finance 1204, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    9. Moshe Maor, 2014. "Policy persistence, risk estimation and policy underreaction," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 47(4), pages 425-443, December.
    10. Liyi Zheng, 2020. "The type of corporate announcements and its implication on trading behaviour," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 629-659, April.

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