IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v13y2002i1p5-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Purchasing Power Parity: Error Correction Models and Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Amalia Zumaquero
  • Rodrigo Urrea

Abstract

This paper examines purchasing power parity (PPP) behavior using error correction models (ECM) and allowing for structural breaks. We distinguish four different objectives: first, this paper examines which variable or variables (the exchange rate and/or international relative prices) exhibit a significant error correction mechanism. Second, this paper presents empirical evidence about the adjustment velocity to the long-run equilibrium. Third, it examines the evidence regarding cointegration and the adjustment coefficients parameter instability, and finally, it analyzes whether traded and non-traded sectors exhibit different behavior. The most important results are: (1) the predominant adjustment is in the exchange rate with a larger velocity adjustment than in relative prices; (2) the evidence suggests that when there are strong depreciations or appreciations in the exchange rate, the international relative prices adjust (i.e., there is evidence of pass-through); (3) the dynamic adjustment to equilibrium is, in general, stable. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Amalia Zumaquero & Rodrigo Urrea, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity: Error Correction Models and Structural Breaks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 5-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:13:y:2002:i:1:p:5-26
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1012298028415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1012298028415
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1012298028415?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
    3. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. Enders, Walter, 1988. "ARIMA and Cointegration Tests of PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 504-508, August.
    6. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    7. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
    8. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    9. Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-333, October.
    10. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-184, February.
    11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    12. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
    13. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-511, August.
    14. Tronzano, Marco, 1992. "Long-Run purchasing Power Parity and Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: A Further Assessment," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 45(1), pages 77-100.
    15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
    16. Dutton, Marilyn & Strauss, Jack, 1997. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the impact of non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 433-444, June.
    17. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    20. Chowdhury, Abdur R. & Sdogati, Fabio, 1993. "Purchasing power parity in the major EMS countries: The role of price and exchange rate adjustment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-45.
    21. Canarellsal, Giorgio & Pollard, Stephen K. & Lai, Kon S., 1990. "Cointegration between exchange rates and relative prices: another view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1303-1322, November.
    22. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    23. Fisher, Eric O'N & Park, Joon Y, 1991. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1476-1484, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    2. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Simos, Theodore, 2013. "Testing purchasing power parity for Japan and the US: A structural-break approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 53-59.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
    4. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:397-412 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    6. Thomas L Bradley & Paul B Eberle, 2023. "Purchasing Power Parity In Russia And The Transitioning Economy 1990-1995," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 31, pages 85-111, June.
    7. Mark Holmes, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Stationarity in Latin America and Relative Purchasing Power Parity: A Regime Switching Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 261-275, April.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:89 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Amalia Morales Zumaquero, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity By sectors From Selected European Countries: Cointegration and Structural Breaks," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 107-119.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Kühl, Michael, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 134, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Kazanas, Thanassis & Miaouli, Natasha, 2014. "Wage-setting and capital in unionized markets: Evidence from South Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-376.
    13. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    14. Karoglou, Michail & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Purchasing power parity and structural instability in the US/UK exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 958-972.
    15. HOLMES, Mark J, 2008. "Non-Linear Trend Stationarity And Co-Trending In Latin American Real Exchange Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 107-118.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    2. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    3. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    5. Thomas L Bradley & Paul B Eberle, 2023. "Purchasing Power Parity In Russia And The Transitioning Economy 1990-1995," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 31, pages 85-111, June.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
    8. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    9. Wang, Chong, 1998. "Testing for purchasing power parity: a nonlinear approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013534, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Strauss, Jack, 1996. "The cointegrating relationship between productivity, real exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 299-313.
    11. G. Everaert, 2007. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships between Observed Integrated Variables by Unobserved Component Methods," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/452, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
    13. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    15. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Ghosh, Dilip, 2015. "Purchasing power parity-symmetry and proportionality: Evidence from 116 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 69-85.
    16. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    17. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.
    18. Jaramillo Franco, Miguel & Serván Lozano, Sergio, 2012. "Modeling exchange rate dynamics in Peru: A cointegration approach using the UIP and PPP," MPRA Paper 70772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dutton, Marilyn & Strauss, Jack, 1997. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the impact of non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 433-444, June.
    20. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 489-506, August.
    21. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:13:y:2002:i:1:p:5-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.