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New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

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  • Darren Byers
  • Talan Işcan
  • Barry Lesser

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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  • Darren Byers & Talan Işcan & Barry Lesser, 2000. "New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 73-91, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:73-91
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008305213791
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    1. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, January.
    3. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517, Elsevier.
    4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Glediana Zeneli (Foto) & Arsen Benga & Altin Hoti, 2024. "Analysis of Albania’s Trade Direction: Is the Open Balkan a New Center of Gravity?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-30, July.
    3. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
    4. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich & Schrader, Klaus, 2003. "Neue Partner in Europa: der baltische Außenhandel im Umbruch," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3128, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Kiyong Keum, 2010. "Tourism flows and trade theory: a panel data analysis with the gravity model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 541-557, June.
    6. Boris A. Portnov, 2005. "Development similarity based on proximity - a case study of urban clusters in Canada," ERSA conference papers ersa05p137, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Allah Morad Seif & Hossein Panahi & Davoud Hamidi Razi, 2017. "An Estimation of The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks on Iran-Russian Trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 469-497, Summer.
    8. Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2005. "A Gravity Model for Exports from Iceland," CAM Working Papers 2005-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
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    10. Anna Golovko & Hasan Sahin, 2021. "Analysis of international trade integration of Eurasian countries: gravity model approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 519-548, September.

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