IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/deg/conpap/c016_068.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Russia's Trade Flows and WTO

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Kolesnikov
  • Olga Podkorytova

Abstract

In our paper, we use the gravity model of the international trade to estimate the effect of the future WTO ascension for Russia based on the current WTO effect for Russia's WTO trade partners. Starting from Rose's specification, we constructed several progressively exact models. Nevertheless, none of these specifications shows any evidence that the WTO significantly and positively influences the trade between its members among Russia's trade partners. This result holds even as we exclude the oil and the gas trade and the FTA influence. Therefore, in terms of increasing the overall trade the value of ascension seems to be lower than FTAs, the impact of which is evident in the model. (In Russian).
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Kolesnikov & Olga Podkorytova, 2011. "Russia's Trade Flows and WTO," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_068, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_16/c016_068.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, April.
    5. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    8. Mr. Yaroslav D Lissovolik & Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status," IMF Working Papers 2004/159, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    10. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    11. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    12. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
    13. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergey Kolesnikov & Olga Podkorytova, 2011. "Russia's Trade Flows and WTO," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_068, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, August.
    3. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    5. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
    6. Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2014. "New directions of trade for the agri-food industry: a disaggregated approach for different income countries, 1963–2000," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Alemayehu Geda & Atnafu Meskel, 2008. "China and India's Growth Surge: Is it a curse or blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufactured Exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 247-272.
    8. Chang, Pao-Li & Lee, Myoung-Jae, 2011. "The WTO trade effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 53-71, September.
    9. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
    10. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "Efectos de la unión monetaria sobre el comercio internacional: elementos de juicio iniciales de la Unión Monetaria Europea," Research Department Publications 4340, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU [‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356.
    13. Zhang, Daowei & Li, Yanshu, 2009. "Forest endowment, logging restrictions, and China's wood products trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-53, March.
    14. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
    15. Juan Felipe Mejía Mejía & Andrés Ramírez Hassan, 2013. "Solving the Puzzle: A New Measure of Trade Distance In The Gravity Equation," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 11556, Universidad EAFIT.
    16. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2018. "Climate Friendly Goods and Technology Trade: Climate Mitigation Strategy of India," MPRA Paper 93031, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    17. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    18. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
    19. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2014. "Do nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements increase beneficiaries' exports?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 291-304.
    20. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2016. "A Re-Examination of the Effect of GATT/WTO on Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 561-584, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WTO; Russia; gravity model; trade flows; non-oil trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Pedersen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehhsdk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.