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Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs

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  • Christian Gollier

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  • Christian Gollier, 2007. "Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 107-127, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:35:y:2007:i:2:p:107-127
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-007-9021-x
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    1. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    2. Lintner, John, 1969. "The Aggregation of Investor's Diverse Judgments and Preferences in Purely Competitive Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 347-400, December.
    3. Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
    4. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1993. "On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 3(2), pages 267-277, April.
    5. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2005. "On the impossibility of preference aggregation under uncertainty," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00193578, HAL.
    6. Varian, Hal R, 1985. "Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 309-317, March.
    7. Mongin Philippe, 1995. "Consistent Bayesian Aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 313-351, August.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    9. Leland, Hayne E, 1980. "Who Should Buy Portfolio Insurance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 581-594, May.
    10. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174.
    11. Christian Gollier, 2003. "Collective Risk-Taking Decisions with Heterogeneous Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 909, CESifo.
    12. Itzhak Gilboa & Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Utilitarian Aggregation of Beliefs and Tastes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 932-938, August.
    13. Gollier, Christian, 2003. "Who Should we Believe? Collective Risk-Taking Decisions with Heterogeneous Beliefs," IDEI Working Papers 201, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    14. Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
    15. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    16. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
    17. Hylland, Aanund & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1979. "The Impossibility of Bayesian Group Decision Making with Separate Aggregation of Beliefs and Values," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1321-1336, November.
    18. Jouini, E. & Napp, C., 2006. "Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 752-770, September.
    19. Nau, Robert F, 1995. "Coherent Decision Analysis with Inseparable Probabilities and Utilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 71-91, January.
    20. Susan Athey, 2002. "Monotone Comparative Statics under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 187-223.
    21. Laurent Calvet & Jean-Michel Grandmont & Isabelle Lemaire, 2001. "Aggregation of Heterogenous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Complete Financial Markets," Working Papers 2001-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    22. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/78 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:dau:papers:123456789/80 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, April.
    26. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00176505 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Constantinides, George M, 1982. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and without Demand Aggregation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 253-267, April.
    28. Gollier Christian, 1995. "The Comparative Statics of Changes in Risk Revisited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 522-535, August.
    29. Karni, Edi, 1993. "A Definition of Subjective Probabilities with State-Dependent Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 187-198, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasyl Golosnoy & Nestor Parolya, 2017. "‘To have what they are having’: portfolio choice for mimicking mean–variance savers," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1645-1653, November.
    2. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Diego Nocetti, 2013. "Collective risk aversion," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(2), pages 411-437, February.
    3. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
    4. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," TSE Working Papers 13-394, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Christian Gollier & Miles S. Kimball, 2018. "Toward a Systematic Approach to the Economic Effects of Risk: Characterizing Utility Functions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 85(2), pages 397-430, June.
    6. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    7. Boco, Hervé & Germain, Laurent & Rousseau, Fabrice, 2016. "Heterogeneous noisy beliefs and dynamic competition in financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 347-363.
    8. Laure Cabantous & Denis Hilton & Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2011. "Is imprecise knowledge better than conflicting expertise? Evidence from insurers’ decisions in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 211-232, June.
    9. Xue‐Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Boundedly rational equilibrium and risk premium," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(1), pages 71-93, March.
    10. Susan Athey, 2002. "Monotone Comparative Statics under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 187-223.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3495 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2010. "Differences in Opinion and Risk Premium," Research Paper Series 271, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Selima Ben Mansour & Elyès Jouini & Jean-Michel Marin & Clotilde Napp & Christian Robert, 2008. "Are risk-averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 843-860.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregation of beliefs; State-dependent utility; Efficient risk sharing; Disagreement; Asset pricing; Portfolio choices; D81; D83;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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