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Differences in Opinion and Risk Premium

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Abstract

When people agree to disagree, this paper examines the impact of the disagreement among agents on market equilibrium and equity premium. Within the standard mean variance framework, we consider a market of two risky assets, a riskless asset and two (and then a continuum of) agents who have different preferences and heterogeneous beliefs in the means and variance/covariances of the asset returns. By constructing a consensus belief, we introduce a boundedly rational equilibrium (BRE) to characterize the market equilibrium and derive a CAPM under heterogeneous beliefs. When the differences in opinion are formed as mean-preserving spreads of a benchmark homogeneous belief, we analyz eexplicitly the impact on the market equilibrium and risk premium, showing that the risk tolerance, optimism/pessimism and confidence/doubt can jointly generate high risk premium and low risk-free rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2010. "Differences in Opinion and Risk Premium," Research Paper Series 271, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:271
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    Cited by:

    1. Hwai-Chung Ho & Chien-Chih Lin, 2012. "How do Heterogeneous Beliefs Influence Asset Volatility?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 601-616, October.
    2. Wolfgang Breuer & Michael Riesener & Astrid Juliane Salzmann, 2014. "Risk aversion vs. individualism: what drives risk taking in household finance?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 446-462, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices; heterogeneous beliefs; boundedly rational equilibrium; zero-beta CAPM; risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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