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Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?

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  • Ananda Ganguly
  • John Kagel
  • Donald Moser

Abstract

The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with context. Prices track highest expected dividend values (HEDVs) with context, resulting in strongly biased prices relative to the Bayesian norm when biased traders have HEDVs. In the abstract treatment prices do not track HEDVs nearly as closely, resulting in prices closer to the BRF bias only when most traders hold biased beliefs. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Ananda Ganguly & John Kagel & Donald Moser, 2000. "Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 219-245, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:20:y:2000:i:3:p:219-245
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1007848013750
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    2. Ackert, Lucy F. & Kluger, Brian D. & Qi, Li, 2012. "Irrationality and beliefs in a laboratory asset market: Is it me or is it you?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 278-291.
    3. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 313-332.
    4. Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2022. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-Aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 388-407, November.
    5. Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
    6. Frey, Bruno S. & Gallus, Jana, 2014. "Aggregate effects of behavioral anomalies: A new research area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-15.
    7. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Morton, Rebecca B. & Piovesan, Marco & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2019. "The dark side of the vote: Biased voters, social information, and information aggregation through majority voting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 461-481.
    9. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
    10. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 43-66, Fall.
    11. Theo Offerman, 2002. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 625-643, June.
    12. Kendall, Chad & Oprea, Ryan, 2018. "Are biased beliefs fit to survive? An experimental test of the market selection hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 342-371.
    13. Berg, Nathan & Biele, Guido & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2010. "Does consistency predict accuracy of beliefs?: Economists surveyed about PSA," MPRA Paper 26590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
    15. Chewning, Eugene Jr. & Coller, Maribeth & Tuttle, Brad, 2004. "Do market prices reveal the decision models of sophisticated investors?: Evidence from the laboratory," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 739-758, November.
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    17. Lea-Rachel Kosnik, 2008. "Refusing to budge: a confirmatory bias in decision making?," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 7(2), pages 193-214, November.

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