IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v62y2021i3d10.1007_s11146-020-09756-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distress Risk and Stock Returns on Equity REITs

Author

Listed:
  • Jianfu Shen

    (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between distress risk and stock return on equity REITs from 1982 to 2017. The distress risk measures such as expected default frequency and failure probability can effectively predict financial failures in the REITs. The distressed REITs earn lower returns than the safe REITs, and the underperformance becomes even worse after correcting the value and size risks. The findings indicate that the distress risk is not a systematic risk or rewarded with a risk premium in the REIT market. The distress anomaly from long the safest REITs and short the most distressed REITs can be explained by the institutional investments in the REITs and the investors’ risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfu Shen, 2021. "Distress Risk and Stock Returns on Equity REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 455-480, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:62:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-020-09756-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-020-09756-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-020-09756-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-020-09756-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Richard Chung & Scott Fung & James D. Shilling & Tammie X. Simmons–Mosley, 2016. "REIT Stock Market Volatility and Expected Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 968-995, October.
    3. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book‐to‐Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
    4. Davidson, Russell & Flachaire, Emmanuel, 2008. "The wild bootstrap, tamed at last," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 162-169, September.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    6. Lorenzo Garlappi & Hong Yan, 2011. "Financial Distress and the Cross‐section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 789-822, June.
    7. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Ruoran Xu, 2019. "Asset Growth and Stock Performance: Evidence from REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 884-927, September.
    8. Joseph Ooi & Jingliang Wang & James Webb, 2009. "Idiosyncratic Risk and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 420-442, May.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Hodrick, Robert J. & Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2009. "High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-23, January.
    10. James L. Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2000. "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 389-406, February.
    11. Crocker Liu & Peng Liu, 2013. "Is What's Bad for the Goose (Tenant), Bad for the Gander (Landlord)? A Retail Real Estate Perspective," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(3), pages 249-282.
    12. Sara Kelly Anzinger & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2017. "The Other Side of Value: The Effect of Quality on Price and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 429-457, April.
    13. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    14. Allen, Marcus T & Madura, Jeff & Springer, Thomas M, 2000. "REIT Characteristics and the Sensitivity of REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 141-152, September.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    16. Brent W. Ambrose & Peter Linneman, 2001. "Reit Organizational Structure and Operating Characteristics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(3), pages 141-162.
    17. S. Price & Dean Gatzlaff & C. Sirmans, 2012. "Information Uncertainty and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomaly: Insights from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 250-274, January.
    18. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    19. R. Jared DeLisle & S. McKay Price & C.F. Sirmans, 2013. "Pricing of Volatility Risk in REITs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(2), pages 223-248.
    20. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    21. H. Swint Friday & Shawn D. Howton & Shelly W. Howton, 2000. "Anomalous Evidence on Operating Performance Following Seasoned Equity Offerings: The Case of REITs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(2), Summer.
    22. Asness, Cliff & Smirlock, Michael, 1991. "A note on REIT bankruptcy and intraindustry information transfers: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1171-1182, December.
    23. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    24. Nusret Cakici & Isil Erol & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 2014. "Tracking the Evolution of Idiosyncratic Risk and Cross-Sectional Expected Returns for US REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 415-440, April.
    25. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    26. Lorenzo Garlappi & Tao Shu & Hong Yan, 2008. "Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2743-2778, November.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    28. Emanuela Giacomini & David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2017. "REIT Leverage and Return Performance: Keep Your Eye on the Target," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 930-978, December.
    29. Agarwal, Vineet & Taffler, Richard, 2008. "Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1541-1551, August.
    30. Willard McIntosh & Youguo Liang & Daniel L. Tompkins, 1991. "An Examination of the Small-Firm Effect within the REIT Industry," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 9-18.
    31. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    32. Chinmoy Ghosh & Scott Roark & C. Sirmans, 2013. "On The Operating Performance of REITs Following Seasoned Equity Offerings: Anomaly Revisited," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 633-663, May.
    33. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Emanuela Giacomini & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2015. "Leverage and Returns: A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-159, August.
    36. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 469-499, August.
    37. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    38. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    39. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    40. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Shaun Bond & Chen Xue, 2017. "The Cross Section of Expected Real Estate Returns: Insights from Investment-Based Asset Pricing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 403-428, April.
    43. David H. Downs & Gary A. Patterson, 2005. "Asset Pricing Information in Vintage REIT Returns: An Information Subset Test," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 5-25, March.
    44. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    45. James D. Peterson & Cheng‐Ho Hsieh, 1997. "Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 321-345, June.
    46. Arnold L. Redman & Herman Manakyan & Kartono Liano, 1997. "Real Estate Investment Trusts and Calendar Anomalies," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 19-28.
    47. Andy C. W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K. C. John Wei, 2003. "The Cross Section of Expected REIT Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 451-479, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wendi Zhang & Bin Li & Alan Wee-Chung Liew & Eduardo Roca & Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Predicting the returns of the US real estate investment trust market: evidence from the group method of data handling neural network," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, December.
    2. Jianfu Shen & Kwong Wing Chau, 2022. "The Effect of Access to the Public Debt Market on Corporate Financing Decisions: The Case of REITs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Zifeng Feng & William G. Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2024. "REIT Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Compensation in the New Era," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 651-681, November.
    4. Ryu, Inug & Jang, Hanwool & Kim, Dongshin & Ahn, Kwangwon, 2021. "Market Efficiency of US REITs: A Revisit," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Xiaoyang Chen & Liguo Zhou & Lin Wang & Yuelong Zheng, 2023. "Risk spillover in China’s real estate industry chain: a DCC-EGARCH-ΔCoVaR model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Fan, Kwok Yuen & Shen, Jianfu & Hui, Eddie C.M. & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2024. "ESG components and equity returns: Evidence from real estate investment trusts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    7. Daoju Peng & Jianfu Shen & Simon Yu Kit Fung & Eddie C. M. Hui & Kwokyuen Fan, 2024. "The Valuation Effect and Consequences of Clawback Adoption in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 274-317, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deniz Anginer & Çelim Yıldızhan, 2018. "Is There a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross-section of Equity Returns [The risk-adjusted cost of financial distress]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 633-660.
    2. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Pricing default risk: The good, the bad, and the anomaly," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 190-213.
    3. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Panayides, Photis M., 2021. "Distress risk anomaly and misvaluation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    4. Kevin Aretz & Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kostakis, 2018. "Do Stock Returns Really Decrease with Default Risk? New International Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3821-3842, August.
    5. Idrees, Sahar & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Distress Risk on Equity Returns: A Case Study of Non-Financial Firms of Pakistan Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 85346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lanlan Liu & Dan Luo & Liang Han, 2019. "Default risk, state ownership and the cross-section of stock returns: evidence from China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 933-966, November.
    7. Tao, Qizhi & Chen, Carl & Lu, Rui & Zhang, Ting, 2017. "Underfunding or distress? An analysis of corporate pension underfunding and the cross-section of expected stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 116-133.
    8. Michael S. O'Doherty, 2012. "On the Conditional Risk and Performance of Financially Distressed Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(8), pages 1502-1520, August.
    9. Assaf Eisdorfer & Amit Goyal & Alexei Zhdanov, 2018. "Distress Anomaly and Shareholder Risk: International Evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 553-581, September.
    10. Assaf Eisdorfer & Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2020. "Distressed Stocks in Distressed Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(6), pages 2452-2473, June.
    11. Jean Helwege & Jing-Zhi Huang & Yuan Wang, 2017. "Debt Covenants and Cross-Sectional Equity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1835-1854, June.
    12. Yinxia G. Nielsen , Caren, 2013. "Is Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns?," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2013/2, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    13. Gharghori, Philip & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert, 2009. "Default risk and equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 580-593, November.
    14. Nielsen, Caren Yinxia, 2011. "Hidden in the Factors? The Effect of Credit Risk on the Cross-section of Equity Returns," Working Papers 2011:38, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2016.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    16. de Groot, Wilma & Huij, Joop, 2018. "Are the Fama-French factors really compensation for distress risk?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 50-69.
    17. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2022. "The Distress Anomaly is Deeper than You Think: Evidence from Stocks and Bonds [The prediction of corporate bankruptcy: a discriminant analysis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 355-405.
    18. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2010. "A resolution of the distress risk and leverage puzzles in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 56-79, April.
    19. Yeh, Chung-Ying & Hsu, Junming & Wang, Kai-Li & Lin, Che-Hui, 2015. "Explaining the default risk anomaly by the two-beta model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-33.
    20. Guo, Hui & Jiang, Xiaowen, 2021. "Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:62:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-020-09756-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.