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Leverage and Returns: A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Real Estate Markets

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  • Emanuela Giacomini
  • David Ling
  • Andy Naranjo

Abstract

The theoretical literature suggests a positive relation between financial leverage and asset returns, but the empirical evidence on this effect is mixed. We examine leverage effects in public real estate markets across eight countries with active public real estate markets. Cross-country public real estate markets provide an interesting testing ground given the significant use of leverage in real estate markets, the variation in REIT capital structures within and across countries, and the cross-country differences in liquidity, ownership, economic, institutional, and capital market structures. After carefully isolating leverage effects in firm-level returns, we find that leverage has a significant effect on returns both unconditionally and conditionally using standard asset pricing models. In addition, greater use of leverage during the 2007–2008 REIT crisis period is associated with larger share price declines. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuela Giacomini & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2015. "Leverage and Returns: A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-159, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:51:y:2015:i:2:p:125-159
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-014-9489-5
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    2. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    4. P. S. Morawakage & G. Earl & B. Liu & E. Roca & A. Omura, 2023. "Housing Risk and Returns in Submarkets with Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 695-734, November.
    5. Doan, Trang & Nguyen, Nga Q., 2018. "Boards of directors and firm leverage: Evidence from real estate investment trusts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 109-124.
    6. Andrey Pavlov & Eva Steiner & Susan Wachter, 2018. "The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 210-250, March.
    7. Hikmet Akyol & Selim Basar, 2024. "Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(74-1), pages 59-98, June.
    8. Elizabeth Devos & Erik Devos & He Li & Desmond Tsang, 2022. "Operating Lease as Alternative Financing for REITs: a Viable Strategy or a Sign of Trouble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 153-180, August.
    9. Yunus Yasin Dogan & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2019. "On the Determinants of REIT Capital Structure: Evidence from around the World," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 295-328, August.
    10. Jianfu Shen, 2021. "Distress Risk and Stock Returns on Equity REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 455-480, April.
    11. Kim Hiang Liow, 2022. "Exploring a Three-Factor Dependence Structure of Conditional Volatilities: Some Quantile Regression Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-13, May.
    12. Kelvin Jui Keng Tan, 2017. "Why Do Overconfident REIT CEOs Issue More Debt? Mechanisms and Value Implications," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(3), pages 319-348, September.
    13. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 4-42, July.
    14. Lee, Chyi Lin & Stevenson, Simon & Cho, Hyunbum, 2022. "Listed real estate futures trading, market efficiency, and direct real estate linkages: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Kim Hiang Liow & Xiaoxia Zhou & Qiang Li & Yuting Huang, 2019. "Co-movement between the US and the securitised real estate markets of the Asian-Pacific economies," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 27-58, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset returns; Leverage; REITs; Cross-country real estate returns; Financial constraints; Crisis; G110; G120; G150; G320; G01;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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