IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v49y2014i1p91-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Calendar Effects and Real Estate Securities

Author

Listed:
  • E. Hui
  • J. Wright
  • S. Yam

Abstract

This paper examines twenty-seven international real estate securities indices from twenty countries and regions for calendar effects. Two methodologies are employed. The first is the standard approach which detects statistically significant anomalies via linear regression of returns. The second, new to the real estate securities literature, tests for economically significant effects through two tests specifically designed to compare multiple forecasts to a benchmark, White’s (Econometrica, 1097–1126, 2000 ) Reality Check and Hansen’s (J Bus Econ Stat 23(4):365–380, 2005 ) Superior Predictive Ability test. The standard approach tells us that while some effects have disappeared over time, statistically significant calendar anomalies persist. However, the tests of White and Hansen strongly suggest that they are not economically significant and thus should not be the basis of an investor’s trading strategy nor be considered as a challenge to market efficiency, as has been claimed previously. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • E. Hui & J. Wright & S. Yam, 2014. "Calendar Effects and Real Estate Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 91-115, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:49:y:2014:i:1:p:91-115
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-012-9398-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-012-9398-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-012-9398-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
    2. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    3. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
    4. William G. Hardin III & Kartono Liano & Gow-cheng Huang, 2005. "Real Estate Investment Trusts and Calendar Anomalies: Revisited," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 83-94.
    5. Su Han Chan & Wai-Kin Leung & Ko Wang, 2005. "Changes in REIT Structure and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Monday Stock Anomaly," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 89-120, March.
    6. Dirk Brounen & Yair Ben-Hamo, 2009. "Calendar Anomalies: The Case of International Property Shares," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 115-136, February.
    7. Fahad Almudhaf & J. Andrew Hansz, 2011. "Systematic Equity Return Patterns in Listed European Property Companies," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 14(1), pages 61-84.
    8. Colwell, Peter F & Park, Hun Y, 1990. "Seasonality and Size Effects: The Case of Real-Estate-Related Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 251-259, September.
    9. H. Swint Friday & David R. Peterson, 1997. "January Return Seasonality In Real Estate Investment Trusts: Information Vs. Tax‐Loss Selling Effects," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 33-51, March.
    10. Jonathan Wiley & Leonard Zumpano, 2009. "Institutional Investment and the Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 180-201, August.
    11. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    16. Veera Lenkkeri & Wessel Marquering & Ben Strunkmann-Meister, 2006. "The Friday Effect in European Securitized Real Estate Index Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, August.
    17. Arnold L. Redman & Herman Manakyan & Kartono Liano, 1997. "Real Estate Investment Trusts and Calendar Anomalies," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 19-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    2. Axelsson, Birger & Song, Han-Suck, 2023. "Univariate Forecasting for REITs with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis with an ARIMA Model," Working Paper Series 23/10, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance, revised 14 Nov 2023.
    3. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2018. "Testing Calendar Effects of International Equity and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 140-158, January.
    4. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    5. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Catherine Anitha Manohar & Ivan F. Julio, 2020. "Overreaction in the REITs Market: New Evidence from Quantile Autoregression Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2019. "Alternative trading strategies to beat “buy-and-hold”," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehmet Akbulut & Su Han Chan & Mariya Letdin, 2015. "Calendar Anomalies: Do REITs Behave Like Stocks?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 177-215.
    2. Dirk Brounen & Yair Ben-Hamo, 2009. "Calendar Anomalies: The Case of International Property Shares," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 115-136, February.
    3. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2014. "Are stock markets really so inefficient? The case of the “Halloween Indicator”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 112-121.
    4. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The Day-of-the-Week Effect is Weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Working Paper series 15-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    6. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    7. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    8. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2015. "Sell in May and Go Away: Still good advice for investors?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
    9. Reis, Julius & Grebe, Leonard & Schiereck, D. & Hennig, Kerstin, 2023. "Is There Still a Day-of-the-Week Effect in the Real Estate Sector?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 141998, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    10. Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2413-2424, October.
    11. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    12. Anghel, Dan Gabriel, 2021. "Data Snooping Bias in Tests of the Relative Performance of Multiple Forecasting Models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Mine AKSOY & Veysel ULUSOY, 2015. "Analysis Of Relative Return Behaviour Of Borsa Istanbul Reit And Borsa Istanbul 100 Index," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 107-128, March.
    14. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2018. "Testing Calendar Effects of International Equity and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 140-158, January.
    15. Andrei Shynkevich, 2021. "Impact of bitcoin futures on the informational efficiency of bitcoin spot market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 115-134, January.
    16. Julius Marcus Reis & Leonard Grebe & Dirk Schiereck & Kerstin Hennig, 2023. "Is There Still a Day-of-the-Week Effect in the Real Estate Sector?," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 3, pages 84-97, September.
    17. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    18. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO.
    19. Romano, Joseph P. & Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Formalized Data Snooping Based On Generalized Error Rates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 404-447, April.
    20. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:49:y:2014:i:1:p:91-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.