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An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications

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  • Yang-Ho Park
  • Nicole Abruzzo

Abstract

Margin regulation raises two policy concerns. First, an alignment of margins to volatility can amplify procyclicality, leading to a build-up of excess leverage in good times and a forced deleverage in bad times. Second, competition among central counterparties (CCPs) can result in lower margin levels in order to attract more trading volume, which is referred to as a “race to the bottom.” Motivated by these issues, we empirically analyze the determinants of margin changes by using a data set of various futures margins from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group. We first find that CME Group raises margins quickly following volatility spikes but does not immediately lower margins following volatility declines, implying that margin-induced procyclicality is more of a concern in recessions than in expansions. In addition, we find some evidence that the margin difference between CME Group and its competitor, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), is an important driver of margin changes after changes in other margin determinants are controlled for, implying that competition may be factored into margin setting. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA) 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Yang-Ho Park & Nicole Abruzzo, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 65-100, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:49:y:2016:i:1:p:65-100
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-014-0212-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaremski, Matthew, 2018. "The (dis)advantages of clearinghouses before the Fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 435-458.
    2. Jarrow, Robert & Lamichhane, Sujan, 2022. "Risk premia, asset price bubbles, and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Hitoshi Hayakawa, 2018. "Does a central clearing counterparty reduce liquidity needs?," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(1), pages 9-50, April.
    4. Jarrow, Robert A. & Kwok, Simon S., 2023. "Futures contract collateralization and its implications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Berndsen, Ron, 2020. "Five Fundamental Questions on Central Counterparties," Other publications TiSEM 1f3bd844-92ab-4104-8f57-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Lopez, Claude & Saeidinezhad, Elham, 2017. "Central Counterparties Help, But Do Not Assure Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 80358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    8. Gabrielle Demange & Thibaut Piquard, 2021. "On the market structure of central counterparties in the EU," Working Papers halshs-03107812, HAL.
    9. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas & Sumawong, Anannit, 2019. "A parsimonious parametric model for generating margin requirements for futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 31-43.
    10. Demange, Gabrielle & Piquard, Thibaut, 2023. "On the choice of central counterparties in the EU," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Ekaterina E. Emm & Gerald D. Gay & Han Ma & Honglin Ren, 2022. "Effects of the Covid‐19 pandemic on derivatives markets: Evidence from global futures and options exchanges," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 823-851, May.
    12. Zhang, Ning & Gong, Yujing & Xue, Xiaohan, 2023. "Less disagreement, better forecasts: adjusted risk measures in the energy futures market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118451, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Ron Berndsen, 2021. "Fundamental questions on central counterparties: A review of the literature," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 2009-2022, December.
    14. Dávid Zoltán Szabó & Kata Váradi, 2022. "Margin requirements based on a stochastic correlation model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1797-1820, October.
    15. Nikil Chande & Nicholas Labelle, 2016. "Using Speed and Credit Limits to Address the Procyclicality of Initial Margin at Central Counterparties," Discussion Papers 16-18, Bank of Canada.
    16. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2016. ""Predatory" margins and the regulation and supervision of central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs)," SAFE White Paper Series 41, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Ning Zhang & Yujing Gong & Xiaohan Xue, 2023. "Less disagreement, better forecasts: Adjusted risk measures in the energy futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1332-1372, October.
    18. González-Urteaga, Ana & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2022. "Guarantee requirements by European central counterparties and international volatility spillovers," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Li, Sai-Ping & Cai, Mei-Ling & Zhong, Li-Xin & Ren, Fei, 2021. "Cross-region risk spillover between the stock and stock index futures markets under exogenous shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Margin; Futures; Volatility; Central counterparties; Procyclicality; Race to the bottom; and Dodd-Frank Act; G01; G18; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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