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Removing biases in forecasts of fishery status

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Costello
  • Olivier Deschênes
  • Ashley Larsen
  • Steven Gaines

Abstract

A recent highly cited paper from this journal develops a model predicting maximum sustainable yield ( $$MSY$$ MSY ) of a fishery using the historical maximum catch ( $$MaxCatch$$ MaxCatch ). The model is parameterized with a small sample of fisheries from the United States, and is subsequently applied globally to estimate the benefits of fishery recovery. That empirical relationship has been adopted for many subsequent high-profile analyses. Unfortunately, the analysis suffers from two important oversights: (1) because the model is non-linear, it suffers from “retransformation bias” and therefore the results significantly understate $$MSY$$ MSY and (2) the analysis is parameterized from of a very limited data set and so generalizability of the fitted empirical relationship between $$MSY$$ MSY and $$MaxCatch$$ MaxCatch to global fisheries is questionable. Here, we rectify both oversights and provide an updated estimate of the relationship between $$MSY$$ MSY and $$MaxCatch$$ MaxCatch . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Costello & Olivier Deschênes & Ashley Larsen & Steven Gaines, 2014. "Removing biases in forecasts of fishery status," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 213-219, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jbioec:v:16:y:2014:i:2:p:213-219
    DOI: 10.1007/s10818-013-9158-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Srinivasan, U. Thara & Watson, Reg & Rashid Sumaila, U., 2012. "Global fisheries losses at the exclusive economic zone level, 1950 to present," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 544-549.
    2. U. Srinivasan & William Cheung & Reg Watson & U. Sumaila, 2010. "Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 183-200, October.
    3. Ussif Rashid Sumaila & William Cheung & Andrew Dyck & Kamal Gueye & Ling Huang & Vicky Lam & Daniel Pauly & Thara Srinivasan & Wilf Swartz & Reginald Watson & Dirk Zeller, 2012. "Benefits of Rebuilding Global Marine Fisheries Outweigh Costs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-12, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retransformation bias; Fisheries; Maximum sustainable yield; Q22; D57; F01;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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