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The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Christian Dreger

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. The short run adjustment pattern exhibits asymmetries and is particularly strong after positive shocks. Downward rigidities on wages may play a crucial role in this regard, as the relatively weak reactions of consumer prices after negative shocks are related to labour market institutions and public subsidies. The more rigid the regulations the more pronounced are the asymmetries. Robustness checks show that international price shocks do not affect GDP growth. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

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  • Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:12:y:2015:i:1:p:143-161
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-014-0283-x
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil and food price transmission; Asymmetric error correction; MENA region; C22; E31; Q02;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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