IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/sndecm/v21y2017i5p20n3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest rate pass-through: a nonlinear vector error-correction approach

Author

Listed:
  • Popiel Michal Ksawery

    (Queen’s University – Economics, Dunning Hall, Room 209 94 University Avenue, Kingston, Ontario K7L3N6, Canada, Phone: 6133294372, Fax: 6135336668)

Abstract

This paper analyzes pass-through from money market rates to consumer retail loan and deposit rates in Canada from 1983 to 2015 using a nonlinear vector error-correction model. This model permits estimation of long-run pass-through coefficients while simultaneously accounting for asymmetric adjustments and short-run dynamics. In contrast to empirical frameworks used in previous studies, it also allows testing of commonly made assumptions such as exogeneity of the market rate, making inference more robust. I find that pass-through was complete for all rates before the financial crisis although only after the mid 1990s for the 1 year mortgage rate. Since the end of the 2008–2009 recession, pass-through remains complete in the mortgage market but has significantly declined for deposit rates. Furthermore, many rates adjust asymmetrically but the direction of rigidity differs among rates and time periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Popiel Michal Ksawery, 2017. "Interest rate pass-through: a nonlinear vector error-correction approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:5:p:20:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2016-0063
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2016-0063
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/snde-2016-0063?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bondt Gabe J. de, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Results for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 37-78, February.
    2. Jason Allen & Darcey McVanel, 2009. "Price Movements in the Canadian Residential Mortgage Market," Staff Working Papers 09-13, Bank of Canada.
    3. Kristensen, Dennis & Rahbek, Anders, 2013. "Testing And Inference In Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 1238-1288, December.
    4. Berger, Allen N & Hannan, Timothy H, 1989. "The Price-Concentration Relationship in Banking," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 291-299, May.
    5. Boswijk, H. Peter & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Inference on co-integration parameters in heteroskedastic vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 64-85.
    6. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 273-295.
    7. Michael Jansson & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2321-2332, September.
    8. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
    9. Jason Allen & Robert Clark & Jean-François Houde, 2019. "Search Frictions and Market Power in Negotiated-Price Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1550-1598.
    10. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2018. "A Matlab program and user's guide for the fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Working Papers 1330, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2014. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1101-1127, August.
    13. Marotta, Giuseppe, 2009. "Structural breaks in the lending interest rate pass-through and the euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 191-205, January.
    14. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    15. Stelios Karagiannis & Yannis Panagopoulos & Prodromos Vlamis, 2014. "The Response of Bank Retail Rates to Money Market Rates in the BRIC Economies: An Application of the Disaggregated GETS Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 153-168, March.
    16. Ritz, Robert A. & Walther, Ansgar, 2015. "How do banks respond to increased funding uncertainty?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-410.
    17. Lorie Zorn & Carolyn A. Wilkins & Walter Engert, 2009. "Bank of Canada Liquidity Actions in Response to the Financial Market Turmoil," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2009(Autumn), pages 7-26.
    18. Nada Mora, 2014. "The weakened transmission of monetary policy to consumer loan rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 1-26.
    19. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – New evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-24.
    20. David Neumark & Steven A. Sharpe, 1992. "Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 657-680.
    21. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    22. Ms. Angeliki Kourelis & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1994/039, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Dodge, David, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Canada: Experience and lessons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-124, August.
    24. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    25. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2004. "Convergence in euro-zone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-492, April.
    26. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials," CEPS Papers 11266, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    27. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in Europe and the US: Monetary policy after the financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 323-338, May.
    28. Barry Scholnick, 1999. "Interest Rate Asymmetries in Long-Term Loan and Deposit Markets," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 5-26, September.
    29. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    30. John C. Driscoll & Ruth A. Judson, 2013. "Sticky deposit rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Anamaria Illes & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through since the financial crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    33. Eugene Lundrigan & Sari Toll, 1998. "The overnight market in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Winter), pages 27-42.
    34. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    35. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
    36. Hannan, Timothy H & Berger, Allen N, 1991. "The Rigidity of Prices: Evidence from the Banking Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 938-945, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 273-295.
    2. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15030 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hennecke, Peter, 2017. "The interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment: Evidence from Germany," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 151, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    6. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & van Ewijk, Saskia E., 2014. "A state space approach to measuring the impact of sovereign and credit risk on interest rate convergence in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 340-357.
    7. Rocha, Manuel Duarte, 2012. "Interest rate pass-through in Portugal: Interactions, asymmetries and heterogeneities," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 64-80.
    8. Putkuri, Hanna, 2010. "Housing loan rate margins in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 10/2010, Bank of Finland.
    9. Hennecke, Peter, 2017. "Zinstransmission in der Niedrigzinsphase: Eine empirische Untersuchung des Zinskanals in Deutschland," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 150, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers hal-04221606, HAL.
    12. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    13. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    14. Michaelis, Henrike, 2024. "Changes in the euro area interest rate pass-through," Discussion Papers 21/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Rutayisire, Musoni J., 2017. "Modelling interest rate pass-through in Rwanda: is the interest rate dynamics symmetric or asymmetric ?," MPRA Paper 90178, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Sep 2018.
    16. Ming-Hua Liu & Dimitris Margaritis & Zhuo Qiao, 2016. "The Global Financial Crisis and Retail Interest Rate Pass-Through in Australia," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-32, December.
    17. Burgstaller, Johann & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "How do bank lending rates and the supply of loans react to shifts in loan demand in the U.K.?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 778-791, November.
    18. Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Expected and Unexpected Impulses of Monetary Policy on the Interest Pass-Through Mechanism in Asian Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 95-137, May.
    19. Heinzelmann Ludwig & Missong Martin, 2020. "Nonlinear interest rate-setting behaviour of German commercial banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2016. "Time-varying mark-up and the ECB monetary policy transmission in a highly non linear framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 247-262.
    21. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    22. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – New evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-24.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rate pass-through; cointegration; asymmetric adjustment; nonlinear vector error-correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:5:p:20:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.