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Budget deficits, capital flows, and long-term interest rates: Cointegration findings for the united kingdom

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  • Richard Cebula

Abstract

This study uses cointegration tools to decide whether a long-term relationship exists between budget deficits and nominal long-term interest rates in the United Kingdom, as previous regression estimates have implicitly assumed. Based on maximum eigenvalue, trace, and likelihood ratio tests, as well as two cointegrating vectors, this study finds that a long-term positive relationship exists between the nominal 20-year government bond rate and the central government budget deficit. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1999

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  • Richard Cebula, 1999. "Budget deficits, capital flows, and long-term interest rates: Cointegration findings for the united kingdom," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(4), pages 489-495, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:5:y:1999:i:4:p:489-495:10.1007/bf02295546
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02295546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Cebula, Richard J, 1988. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the United States, 1955-1984," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 43(3), pages 337-348.
    4. Al-Saji, Amer K., 1992. "The Impact of Government Budget Deficits mi Ex Post Real Long Terra Interest Rates in the United Kingdom, 1960: 1 - 1990: 2," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 45(2), pages 158-163.
    5. Cebula, Richard J. & Bates, Kimberly & Marks, Louise & Roth, Allison, 1988. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 41(1-2), pages 1-7.
    6. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bob Barnes, 2007. "A Cointegrating approach to budget deficits and long-term interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 127-133.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Does more government deficit raise the interest rate? Application of extended loanable funds model to Slovenia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(2), pages 349-361.

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