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Deficits and Real Interest Rates: A Note Extending the Hoelscher Model

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  • Cebula, Richard
  • Scott, Gerald

Abstract

This study adopts a loanable funds model to investigate the impact of budget deficits in the U.S. on long term real interest rates. The study investigates both ex post real 10 year Treasury note yields and ex post real 20 year Treasury bond yields. The study period runs from 1955 through 1987, using quarterly data. Two stage least squares estimations reveal that budget deficits did indeed raise these ex post real long term interest rate yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebula, Richard & Scott, Gerald, 1990. "Deficits and Real Interest Rates: A Note Extending the Hoelscher Model," MPRA Paper 54608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54608
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. James R. Barth & George Iden & Frank S. Russek, 1984. "Do Federal Deficits Really Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 3(1), pages 79-95, September.
    3. Richard J. Cebula, 1985. "The ‘Crowding Out’ Effect of Fiscal Policy: Correction," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 435-437, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficits; ex post real long term interest rates; two stage least squares estimations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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