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Detecting break in oil price series using the Box-Tiao method

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  • Ali Akarca
  • Dimitri Andrianacos

Abstract

This paper presents an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average procedure which allows one to test a time series for a structural break at an unknown point in time. It is a variation of the Box-Tiao method designed to test for a structural break due to an intervention at a known time. Applying the procedure to the crude oil market, we were able to statistically show the existence of a structural break in the oil price series and to pinpoint the month during which it took place, January 1986. The results also underscore the need for testing the stability of models estimated using oil price data covering both sides of the structural break and may assist those who study the political events of the period. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

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  • Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 1997. "Detecting break in oil price series using the Box-Tiao method," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 217-224, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:3:y:1997:i:2:p:217-224:10.1007/bf02294942
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02294942
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    1. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Unit Root Behavior in Energy Futures Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 1, pages 7-14, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    7. Francisco R. Parra, 1994. "OPEC and the Price of Oil in 1993," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 17-30.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 1998. "The relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(3), pages 282-288, August.

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