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Comparison of Forecast and Actuality

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  • G. E. P. Box
  • G. C. Tiao

Abstract

The paper shows how possible change in a system generating a time series may be studied by comparing forecasts made from a model built on data prior to the suspected change with data actually occurring. An environmental example illustrates the decomposition of the overall criterion into relevant components and shows how difficulties can occur in distinguishing alternative models for change. The relation to surveillance problems and to intervention analysis is briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • G. E. P. Box & G. C. Tiao, 1976. "Comparison of Forecast and Actuality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 25(3), pages 195-200, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:25:y:1976:i:3:p:195-200
    DOI: 10.2307/2347226
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiammetta Menchetti & Fabrizio Cipollini & Fabrizia Mealli, 2021. "Estimating the causal effect of an intervention in a time series setting: the C-ARIMA approach," Papers 2103.06740, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    3. Wang, Shin-Huei & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2013. "Recursive predictive tests for structural change of long-memory ARFIMA processes with unknown break points," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 389-392.
    4. Fan, Jianqing & Ke, Yuan & Wang, Kaizheng, 2020. "Factor-adjusted regularized model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 71-85.
    5. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
    6. Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 1997. "Detecting break in oil price series using the Box-Tiao method," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 217-224, May.
    7. Alvarez, Luis J. & Delrieu, Juan C. & Jareño, Javier, 1997. "Restricted forecasts and economic target monitoring: An application to the Spanish Consumer Price Index," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 333-349, June.
    8. Fiammetta Menchetti & Fabrizio Cipollini & Fabrizia Mealli, 2021. "Causal effect of regulated Bitcoin futures on volatility and volume," Papers 2109.15052, arXiv.org.
    9. Victor Guerrero, 2005. "Restricted estimation of an adjusted time series: application to Mexico's industrial production index," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 157-177.
    10. Holt, Matthew T. & Brandt, Jon A., 1985. "Forecasting Hog Prices Using Time Series Analysis Of Residuals," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Victor Guerrero & Edmundo Berumen, 1998. "Forecasting electricity consumption with extra-model information provided by consumers," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 283-299.
    12. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.
    13. McCrae, Michael, et al, 2002. "Can Cointegration-Based Forecasting Outperform Univariate Models? An Application to Asian Exchange Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 355-380, August.
    14. Kraay, Aart & Monokroussos, George, 1999. "Growth forecasts using time series and growth models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2224, The World Bank.
    15. Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 1998. "The relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(3), pages 282-288, August.

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