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The Eisner Puzzle, the Unemployment Threshold and the Range of Equilibria

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Abstract

Using a two-regime model of the inflation-unemployment process for US data 1960:2 to 2000:2, this paper finds strong evidence to support the Eisner puzzle, which occurs when the short-run Phillips curve (SRPC) is flatter at low rates of unemployment than at higher rates. The puzzling aspect of this pattern is the expectation of excess demand to become apparent at very low rates of unemployment causing the SRPC to be steep rather than fairly flat. We show the puzzle can be resolved by estimating a three-regime model which reveals a steep SRPC at very low rates of unemployment. The estimates of the three regime model also reveal a horizontal SRPC at intermediate rates of unemployment, implying the existence of a range of equilibrium rates of unemployment at those intermediate rates. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2008

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  • Jenny Lye & Ian McDonald, 2008. "The Eisner Puzzle, the Unemployment Threshold and the Range of Equilibria," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 125-141, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:125-141:10.1007/s11294-008-9149-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-008-9149-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian McDonald, 2009. "Behavioural macroeconomics and wage and price setting: Developing some early insights of John Maynard Keynes and Joan Robinson," CAMA Working Papers 2009-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    3. Ian M. McDonald, 2017. "‘We Will End Up Being a Third Rate Economy … A Banana Republic’: How Behavioural Economics Can Improve Macroeconomic Outcomes," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(2), pages 137-151, June.
    4. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eisner puzzle; Range of equilibria; Inflation; Unemployment; Natural rate; E00;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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