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Economic factors, monetary policy and expected returns on stocks and bonds

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  • James R. Booth
  • Lena Chua Booth

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the stance of monetary policy on security returns. The two measures of the stance of monetary policy used, the federal funds rate and an index based on the changes in the discount rate, contain significant information that can be used to forecast expected stock and bond portfolio returns. Specifically, we find that a restrictive (expansive) monetary policy stance decreases (increases) returns of large and small stock portfolios and in some cases, corporate bond portfolios. The monetary policy stance measures have explanatory power in forecasting stock and bond returns, beyond the business conditions proxies.

Suggested Citation

  • James R. Booth & Lena Chua Booth, 1997. "Economic factors, monetary policy and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1997:p:32-42:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John, Tatom, 2009. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?," MPRA Paper 19762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M., 2006. "Security markets and the information content of monetary policy turning points," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 477-494, September.
    3. Jensen, Gerald R. & Moorman, Theodore, 2010. "Inter-temporal variation in the illiquidity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 338-358, November.
    4. Lee, Ki Seong & Yoon, Seok, 2007. "Interrelationships and volatility of the financial asset prices under capital flows: The case of Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-397, May.
    5. Tori, Cynthia Royal, 2001. "Federal Open Market Committee meetings and stock market performance," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-4), pages 163-171.
    6. Clive Coetzee, 2002. "Monetary Conditions and Stock Returns: A South African Case Study," Finance 0205002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.

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