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Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations

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  • Hall, Jason L.
  • Tacon, Paul B.

Abstract

We examine whether it is profitable to trade according to the recommendations of analysts who made accurate earnings forecasts in a prior year. Prior research has shown that analysts who made the most accurate earnings forecasts in the current period also made the most profitable recommendations during that period. Unfortunately, our research shows that these accurate forecasters cannot be identified on the basis of their track record. While there is statistically significant evidence that forecasting ability is persistent, it is not sufficient to generate profitable stock recommendations in the future. We also attempted to identify superior analysts with respect to the combination of forecast accuracy and recommendation profitability. Even with this finer segmentation of analysts there is no difference in their ability to make profitable recommendations in the future. Furthermore, regardless of forecasting ability, analysts are pre-disposed to recommend stocks with low book-to-market ratios and positive price momentum. This bias may impede their ability to make profitable recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:6:y:2010:i:1:p:18-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcae.2010.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Gregoire & Francisco Marcet, 2014. "Analysts Target Price Accuracy and Investors' Reaction: Chilean Stock Market Evidence," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 9(2), pages 153-173, Julio-Dic.
    2. Raphaëlle Bellando & Zahra Ben Braham & Sébastien Galanti, 2014. "The Performance of Portfolios Based on Analysts' Recommendations: the Tunisian Case," Working Papers hal-01405332, HAL.
    3. Cheng‐tsu Huang & Chu‐hsuan Chang & Hsiou‐wei Lin, 2021. "Do current‐year forecasts deserve investors' exclusive attention among analyst estimates?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 714-723, June.
    4. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    5. Zahra Ben Braham & Sébastien Galanti, 2014. "Recommendation Value on an Emerging Market: the Impact of Analyst' Recommendations on Stock Prices and Trading Volumes in Tunisia," Working Papers halshs-01015380, HAL.
    6. R. Bellando & Z. Ben Braham & S. Galanti, 2016. "The profitability of financial analysts’ recommendations: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(46), pages 4410-4418, October.
    7. Victor Tiberius & Laura Lisiecki, 2019. "Stock Price Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Financial Magazines," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-8, October.
    8. Hess, Dieter E. & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2010. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Sébastien GALANTI & Zahra BEN BRAHAM, 2013. "Recommendation Value on an Emerging Market: the Impact of Financial Analysts Recommendations on Stock Price and Trading Volume in Tunisia," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1393, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Jorge Gregoire & Francisco Marcet, 2014. "Analysts Target Price Accuracy and Investors' Reaction: Chilean Stock Market Evidence," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
    11. Marinelli, Carlo & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2014. "On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 39-60.
    12. Hess, Dieter & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2011. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Chen Su & Hanxiong Zhang & Robert S. Hudson, 2020. "The time‐varying performance of UK analyst recommendation revisions: Do market conditions matter?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 65-89, May.
    14. Samie Ahmed Sayed, 2016. "Are Stars Worth Following? Measuring the Target Price Predictive Ability of Star Analysts in an Emerging Market," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 173-185, July.

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