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From 2008–2011 Great Recession to COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of resilience metrics in European regions

Author

Listed:
  • Bogdan-Vasile Ileanu

    (Center for Health Outcomes and Evaluation
    Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Adrian Pana

    (Center for Health Outcomes and Evaluation
    Babes-Bolyai University)

Abstract

We aim to clarify the usefulness of different measures of economic resilience in the context of global shocks. In relation to the Great Recession, Oil& European migrant crises, and COVID-19, we compute and validate from a statistical point of view, then characterize five metrics on 317 NUTS2 regions and 21 years. ROC curves and Cox regression compare them by the capacity to predict the post-shock state. Heterogenous behavior characterizes resistance, recovery, and loss. Furthermore, the non-linear resistance performs best in future state prediction, while the composite index has the lowest efficiency as a predictor of the regions’ recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan-Vasile Ileanu & Adrian Pana, 2024. "From 2008–2011 Great Recession to COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of resilience metrics in European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1037-1073, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:51:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10663-024-09621-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09621-3
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