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Can below-replacement fertility be desirable?

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  • Erich Striessnig
  • Wolfgang Lutz

Abstract

In this paper, we challenge the widespread notion that replacement level fertility is the most desirable level of fertility both for countries currently above and below this level. We discuss possible alternative criteria for choosing one fertility level over another. In accordance with earlier studies, we focus on age dependency as the sole criterion. But we do so by relaxing the strong assumption that all individuals of a given age are equal in terms of their economic contribution to society and introduce education as probably the most relevant observable source of population heterogeneity. Our criterion variable is the education-weighted support ratio and we perform thousands of alternative simulations for different constant levels of fertility, starting from empirically given populations. If education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during working age, then for most countries the desirable long-term total fertility rate turns out to be well below replacement level. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Erich Striessnig & Wolfgang Lutz, 2013. "Can below-replacement fertility be desirable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 409-425, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:40:y:2013:i:3:p:409-425
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-013-9213-3
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    2. Kryštof Zeman & Eva Beaujouan & Zuzanna Brzozowska & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(25), pages 651-690.
    3. Philip Rees, 2018. "Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 037-053.
    4. Denisa Kocanova & Viliam Kovac & Vitaliy Serzhanov & Jan Buleca, 2023. "Differences and Similarities in Patterns of Ageing Society in the European Union," E&M Economics and Management, Technical University of Liberec, Faculty of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 45-64, March.
    5. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan, 2014. "Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two-Child Family Ideal in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 391-419, September.
    6. Wolfgang Lutz, 2014. "A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty-First Century," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 527-544, September.

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