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Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

Author

Listed:
  • Samir KC

    (Shanghai University)

  • Wolfgang Lutz

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Anne Goujon

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Vegard Skirbekk

    (Folkehelseinstituttet (Norwegian Institute of Public Health))

  • Bilal Barakat

    (Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften)

Abstract

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Samir KC & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren C. Sanderson & Anne Goujon & Vegard Skirbekk & Bilal Barakat, 2010. "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(15), pages 383-472.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:22:y:2010:i:15
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    education; human capital; projections; differential of mortality; educational attainment; differential fertility; education goals; education policies; education scenarios; multistate models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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