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Tax rates and tax evasion: an empirical analysis of the long-run aspects in Italy

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  • Bruno Chiarini
  • Elisabetta Marzano
  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

We use official time series of the Italian evaded VAT base (Ministry of Finance) for the period 1980:1–2006:4 to investigate empirically the long-run characteristics of tax evasion and the relationship with the tax burden. Three hitherto unexplored issues are addressed. First, using different measures of aggregate economic activity as reference variables in estimating the average tax burden, we examine the size and dynamics of the overburden traceable back to tax evasion. Second, exploiting cointegration techniques, we quantify the elasticity between tax evasion and the average tax rate in Italy. We then comment on the complex dynamic interaction between the tax burden and tax evasion to ascertain whether in the Italian experience there is evidence for any “vicious circle” between them. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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  • Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Tax rates and tax evasion: an empirical analysis of the long-run aspects in Italy," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 273-293, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ejlwec:v:35:y:2013:i:2:p:273-293
    DOI: 10.1007/s10657-011-9247-6
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    Cited by:

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    2. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    3. Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama & Rapipong Promnart, 2022. "Shadow economy and the efficiency of FDI inflow: the case of ASEAN economies," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 136-155.
    4. Folorunsho Monsuru Ajide & James Temitope Dada & Johnson Kolawole Olowookere, 2022. "Shadow economy and foreign direct investment in Nigerian manufacturing industry," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 156-180.
    5. Boștină Florin, 2017. "A VAR Analysis Regarding Tax Evasion and Tax Pressure in Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 505-509, December.
    6. Justin Chircop & Michele Fabrizi & Patrizia Malaspina & Antonio Parbonetti, 2023. "Anti‐Mafia Police Actions, Criminal Firms, and Peer Firm Tax Avoidance," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 243-277, March.
    7. Paulo Jorge Varela Lopes Dias & Pedro Miguel Gomes Reis, 2018. "The relationship between the effective tax rate and the nominal rate," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(2), pages 23-24, Junio.
    8. Egidijus Bikas & Rolandas Sakalauskas, 2020. "Taxpayer?s Behavior in the Changing Tax Policy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 23-38, December.
    9. Syed Hassan Raza & Syed Muddassir Abbas Naqvi, 2016. "Impact of Tax Evasion on Total Tax in Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(11), pages 730-739, November.
    10. Emile Cammeraat & Ernesto Crivelli, 2020. "Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy," IMF Working Papers 2020/037, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana & Pedro Pascual Arzoz, 2011. "Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 199(4), pages 9-52, December.
    12. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2011. "Can we Rely upon Fiscal Policy Estimates in Countries with Unreported Production of 15 Per Cent (or more) of GDP?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3521, CESifo.
    13. Caro, Paolo Di & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The heterogeneous effects of labor informality on VAT revenues: Evidence on a developed country," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; VAT evasion; Effective tax rate; Apparent tax rate; VECM; H30; H26; O17; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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