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Metodologie di stima dell�economia sommersa: un�applicazione al caso italiano

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  • Roberta Zizza

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The paper surveys different approaches to the estimation of the underground economy. First, the focus is on the methodologies adopted by the Italian and French Statistical Institutes, respectively based on the exhaustive estimate of the labour input and on tax compliance data. Secondly, we investigate the currency demand approach; its application to Italian data provides estimates of the value added generated by the underground economy that are substantially consistent with those published by Istat for the period 1992-98, and indicates a significant reduction of this aggregate for the subsequent two years, for which official figures are not available. Finally, we treat the underground economy as a latent variable to be determined through a factor analysis; conclusions emerging from this exercise appear similar to those coming from the previous approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Zizza, 2002. "Metodologie di stima dell�economia sommersa: un�applicazione al caso italiano," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 463, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_463_02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giammatteo, Michele & Iezzi, Stefano & Zizza, Roberta, 2022. "Pecunia olet. Cash usage and the underground economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 107-127.
    2. Amedeo Argentiero & Carlo Andrea BOLLINO, 2013. "The Mmeasurement of Underground Economy: A Dynamic-Simulation Based Approach," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 123/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    3. Columba, Francesco, 2008. "The speed of euro adoption," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-259, March.
    4. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2007. "Structural and Cyclical Patterns of Underground Labour Input in Italy from 1980 to 2004," Discussion Papers 3_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    5. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2004. "Pitfalls of monetary policy under incomplete information: imprecise indicators and real indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 488, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Quintano, Claudio & Mazzocchi, Paolo, 2013. "The shadow economy beyond European public governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 650-670.
    7. Busato; Francesco & Bruno Chiarini & Vincenzo di Maro, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Cesaroni, 2018. "Tax reforms and the underground economy: a simulation-based analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 458-518, April.
    9. Ardizzi, Guerino & De Franceschis, Pierpaolo & Giammatteo, Michele, 2018. "Cash payment anomalies and money laundering: An econometric analysis of Italian municipalities," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 105-121.
    10. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    11. Amedeo Argentiero & Michele Bagella & Francesco Busato, 2008. "Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 341-359, December.
    12. Maria Felice Arezzo & Giorgio Alleva, 2013. "Un?analisi territoriale del lavoro sommerso nel settore delle costruzioni in Italia," RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 79-110.
    13. Giorgio Gobbi & Roberta Zizza, 2007. "Does the Underground Economy Hold Back Financial Deepening? Evidence from the Italian Credit Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0789, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2011. "Measuring the Shadow Economy with the Currency Demand Approach - A Reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy," Working papers 22, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    15. Carlo V Fiorio & Francesco D'Amuri, 2005. "Workers' Tax Evasion in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 64(2-3), pages 247-270, November.
    16. Marcon, Giulio, 2021. "La ricchezza in Italia Rapporto di ricerca [Wealth in Italy. Research Report]," MPRA Paper 107809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Tax rates and tax evasion: an empirical analysis of the long-run aspects in Italy," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 273-293, April.
    18. Marco Pini & Paolo Quirino, 2014. "Dai primi studi sul reddito nazionale alla stima provinciale del reddito disponibile delle famiglie," RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(3), pages 79-113.
    19. Simona Monteleone, 2014. "Economia sommersa: ULA irregolari in Italia dal 1980 al 2009," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2), pages 91-123.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency demand; underground economy; hidden labour; taxation; exhaustiveness; value added; latent variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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