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Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

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  • Barry Harrison
  • David Paton

Abstract

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000. Copyright Springer 2005
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  • Barry Harrison & David Paton, 2004. "Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 203-223, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:37:y:2004:i:3:p:203-223
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-005-5060-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Kovačić, Zlatko, 2007. "Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 5319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2007. "Are the Transition Stock Markets Efficient? Evidence from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12.
    3. Andreea Săseanu & Hosney (Harry) Zurub & Gurgen Ohanyan & Natalia Bob, 2014. "The effects of IMF conditionality on Romanian economy: evidence from the Bucharest Stock Exchange," Management & Marketing, Economic Publishing House, vol. 9(3), Autumn.
    4. B Harrison & D Paton, 2007. "Do fat tails matter in GARCH estimation: testing market efficiency in two transition economies," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 12(2), pages 15-26, September.
    5. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben, 2016. "Time varying market efficiency of the GCC stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 487-504.
    6. Ece C. KARADAGLI & Nazlı C. OMAY, 2012. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency Of Emerging Markets: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 235-245.
    7. Lavinia Minodora Takacs, 2012. "The Value Relevance Of Earnings In A Transition Economy: Evidence From Romanian Stock Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(14), pages 1-8.
    8. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2009. "Spillover effects from London and Frankfurt to Central and Eastern European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1509-1521.
    9. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Boughrara, Adel, 2013. "Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-208.
    10. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    11. Delcoure, Natalya (Natasha) & Singh, Harmeet, 2016. "BRIC or CBRI: It just doesn’t sound as sexy, does it?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 230-239.
    12. Drags Mînjina & Petre Brezeanu, 2013. "Testing the Efficient Markets Hypothesis on the Romanian Capital Market," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(15), pages 151-158, December.
    13. Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Ghani, Gairuzazmi Mat & Duasa, Jarita, 2016. "Investigating stock market efficiency: A look at OIC member countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 402-413.
    15. Filip, Andrei & Raffournier, Bernard, 2010. "The value relevance of earnings in a transition economy: The case of Romania," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 77-103, March.
    16. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    17. Harrison, Barry & Moore, Winston, 2009. "Stock Market Como Vement In The European Union And Transition Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 13(3), pages 124-151.
    18. Gilenko, Evgenii & Fedorova, Elena, 2014. "Internal and external spillover effects for the BRIC countries: Multivariate GARCH-in-mean approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-45.
    19. Ferreira, Paulo, 2018. "Long-range dependencies of Eastern European stock markets: A dynamic detrended analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 454-470.
    20. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2012. "Stock Market Efficiency, Non-Linearity, Thin Trading and Asymmetric Information in MENA Stock Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 77-93, March.
    21. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    22. Victor Dragota & Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "Informational Efficiency Tests on the Romanian Stock Market: A Review of the Literature," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(1), pages 015-028, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market efficiency; transition; G14; P34;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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