IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/decono/v168y2020i4d10.1007_s10645-020-09367-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Loan to Value Caps and Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance: Loan-Level Evidence from Dutch Residential Mortgages

Author

Listed:
  • Leo Haan

    (De Nederlandsche Bank
    Centrale Bank van Aruba)

  • Mauro Mastrogiacomo

    (De Nederlandsche Bank
    Vrij Universiteit Amsterdam
    Netspar)

Abstract

Using loan level data on mortgage loans originated by Dutch banks during 1996 to 2015, we analyse the determinants of the incidence of non-performance. We find that both the originating loan-to-value ratio (OLTV) and the debt-service-to-income ratio are significantly positively associated with the probability of non-performance. The results suggest that mortgages with government-loan-guarantees perform better. Moreover, several mortgage loan and borrower characteristics, such as the (interest-only) loan type and the underwater status of the borrower, increase credit risk. Our model predictions suggest a novel policy implication: in order to avoid acceleration of non-performance probabilities, the OLTV-limit should be set to about 70–80% for uninsured mortgages, and to about 90% for those with mortgage insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo Haan & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2020. "Loan to Value Caps and Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance: Loan-Level Evidence from Dutch Residential Mortgages," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(4), pages 453-473, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:168:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10645-020-09367-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-020-09367-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10645-020-09367-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10645-020-09367-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qjpn9qdt4886rqeks8p6b6t11 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Remco van der Molen, 2015. "Dutch mortgages in the DNB loan level data," DNB Occasional Studies 1304, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Seán Lyons, 2018. "Determinants of mortgage arrears in Europe: evidence from household microdata," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 545-567, October.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6ka8i7k76r83u9an5s6phimuh3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Li, Wenli & Oswald, Florian, 2017. "Recourse and residential mortgages: The case of Nevada," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Johan Verbruggen & Remco van der Molen & Steven Jonk & Jan Kakes & Willem Heeringa, 2015. "Effects of further reductions in the LTV limit," DNB Occasional Studies 1302, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Seán Lyons, 2018. "Determinants of mortgage arrears in Europe: evidence from household microdata," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 545-567, October.
    9. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    10. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    11. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    12. Richard Ronald & Kees Dol, 2011. "Housing in the Netherlands Before and After the Global Financial Crisis," Chapters, in: Ray Forrest & Ngai-Ming Yip (ed.), Housing Markets and the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    14. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alin Marius Andries & Anca Copaciu & Radu Popa & Razvan Vlahu, 2021. "Recourse and (strategic) mortgage defaults: Evidence from changes in housing market laws," Working Papers 727, DNB.
    2. Yeorim Kim & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2024. "Residual-debt insurance and mortgage repayments," Working Papers 823, DNB.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leo Haan & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2020. "Loan to Value Caps and Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance: Loan-Level Evidence from Dutch Residential Mortgages," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(4), pages 453-473, December.
    2. Asaf Bernstein, 2021. "Negative Home Equity and Household Labor Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2963-2995, December.
    3. Peydró, José-Luis & Rodriguez-Tous, Francesc & Tripathy, Jagdish & Uluc, Arzu, 2020. "Macroprudential policy, mortgage cycles and distributional effects: Evidence from the UK," Bank of England working papers 866, Bank of England.
    4. François Koulischer & Pauline Perray & Thi Thu Huyen Tran, 2022. "COVID-19 and the Mortgage Market in Luxembourg," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, March.
    5. Mr. Adrian Alter & Alan Xiaochen Feng & Nico Valckx, 2018. "Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2018/076, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Aller, Carlos & Grant, Charles, 2018. "The effect of the financial crisis on default by Spanish households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 39-52.
    7. Francesco Caloia, 2022. "Borrower-Based Measures, House Prices and Household Debt," Working Papers 738, DNB.
    8. Caloia, Francesco G., 2024. "Borrower-based measures, house prices and household debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    10. Manconi, Alberto & Braggion, Fabio & Zhu, Haikun, 2018. "Can Technology Undermine Macroprudential Regulation? Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Credit in China," CEPR Discussion Papers 12668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Albanesi, Stefania & DeGiorgi, Giacomo & Nosal, Jaromir, 2022. "Credit growth and the financial crisis: A new narrative," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 118-139.
    12. Yucheng Yang & Zhong Zheng & Weinan E, 2020. "Interpretable Neural Networks for Panel Data Analysis in Economics," Papers 2010.05311, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    13. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    15. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Hauser, Lea, 2024. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2024," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2024SUM, march.
    16. Giovanni Favara & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2017. "Forced Asset Sales and the Concentration of Outstanding Debt: Evidence from the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1118, June.
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Katharina Bergant & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Fergal Mccann, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2533-2575, October.
    18. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    19. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    20. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Mortgage loans; Loan to value; Loan guarantees; Mortgage insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:168:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10645-020-09367-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.