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Learning Bermudans

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Aiolfi

    (University of Milan)

  • Nicola Moreni

    (Intesa Sanpaolo)

  • Marco Bianchetti

    (University of Bologna
    Intesa Sanpaolo)

  • Marco Scaringi

    (Intesa Sanpaolo)

Abstract

American-type financial instruments are often priced with specific Monte Carlo techniques whose efficiency critically depends on the dimensionality of the problem and the available computational power. Our work proposes a novel approach for pricing Bermudan swaptions, well-known interest rate derivatives, using supervised learning algorithms. In particular, we link the price of a Bermudan swaption to its natural hedges, which include the underlying European swaptions, and other relevant financial quantities through supervised learning non-parametric regressions. We explore several algorithms, ranging from linear models to decision tree-based models and neural networks and compare their predictive performances. Our results indicate that all supervised learning algorithms are reliable and fast, with ridge regressor, neural networks, and gradient-boosted regression trees performing the best for the pricing problem. Furthermore, using feature importance techniques, we identify the most important driving factors of a Bermudan swaption price, confirming that the maximum underlying European swaption value is the dominant feature.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Aiolfi & Nicola Moreni & Marco Bianchetti & Marco Scaringi, 2024. "Learning Bermudans," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2813-2852, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:64:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s10614-023-10517-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10517-w
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