IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v53y2019i4d10.1007_s10614-018-9809-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Optimal Mortgage Refinancing Strategy with Stochastic Interest Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoxia Wu

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    University of Texas at Austin)

  • Dejun Xie

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    Xi’an Jiaotong Liverpool University)

  • David A. Edwards

    (University of Delaware)

Abstract

This article puts forward a framework for assessing the optimal refinancing strategy in continuous time when the interest rate is stochastic and follows a Vasicek model. The optimal refinancing time is obtained by minimizing the conditional expectation of the discounted total payment. A moment generating function is used to derive a closed-form approximation to the refinancing function with infinite maturity under the Vasicek model. The approximation is studied both analytically and numerically. The results indicate three different types of behaviour in the refinancing function, depending on the underlying parameters in the model. Two types indicate optimal refinancing in finite time. We outline a strategy by which a borrower can continually evaluate whether to refinance. By providing a systematic way to evaluate the likelihood of refinancing, these results should be of interest to those trading mortgage-backed securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoxia Wu & Dejun Xie & David A. Edwards, 2019. "An Optimal Mortgage Refinancing Strategy with Stochastic Interest Rate," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1353-1375, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:53:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-018-9809-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-018-9809-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-018-9809-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-018-9809-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Kalotay & Deane Yang & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2004. "An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model For Mortgages And Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 949-978.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    5. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrew H. Chen & David C. Ling, 1989. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Stochastic Interest Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 278-299, September.
    7. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:591-622 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Werner Hürlimann, 2012. "Valuation of fixed and variable rate mortgages: binomial tree versus analytical approximations," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 35(2), pages 171-202, November.
    2. Dejun Xie & Nan Zhang & David A. Edwards, 2018. "Simulation Solution to a Two-Dimensional Mortgage Refinancing Problem," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 479-492, August.
    3. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2013. "Mortgage Hedging in Fixed Income Markets," FMG Discussion Papers dp722, Financial Markets Group.
    4. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Theodore M. Barnhill Jr., 1998. "The Survival Zone For A Bond With Both Call And Put Options Embedded," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 419-430, December.
    5. Duarte, Jefferson & Longstaff, Francis A. & Yu, Fan, 2005. "Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6zx6m7fp, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    7. Mikhail Chernov & Brett R. Dunn & Francis A. Longstaff, 2018. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1132-1183.
    8. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2016. "Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(5), pages 1220-1253.
    9. Sumit Agarwal & Richard J. Rosen & Vincent W. Yao, 2013. "Why do borrowers make mortgage refinancing mistakes?," Working Paper Series WP-2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Devine, Kenneth, 2022. "Refinancing Inertia in the Irish Mortgage Market," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    11. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    12. Emanuele Casamassima & Lech A. Grzelak & Frank A. Mulder & Cornelis W. Oosterlee, 2021. "Pricing and Hedging Prepayment Risk in a Mortgage Portfolio," Papers 2109.14977, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    13. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
    14. Sumit Agarwal & Richard J. Rosen & Vincent Yao, 2016. "Why Do Borrowers Make Mortgage Refinancing Mistakes?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3494-3509, December.
    15. Szu‐Lang Liao & Ming‐Shann Tsai & Shu‐Ling Chiang, 2008. "Closed‐Form Mortgage Valuation Using Reduced‐Form Model," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 313-347, June.
    16. Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John D. & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Optimal Mortgage Reï¬ nancing: A Closed Form Solution," Scholarly Articles 9918811, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. Camilla LandÊn, 2000. "Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 371-389.
    18. Álvarez Echeverría Francisco & López Sarabia Pablo & Venegas Martínez Francisco, 2012. "Valuación financiera de proyectos de inversión en nuevas tecnologías con opciones reales," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 57(3), pages 115-145, julio-sep.
    19. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    20. Lin, Bing-Huei, 1999. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates for Taiwanese government bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 331-352, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:53:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-018-9809-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.