IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v20y2017i08ns0219024917500509.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Behavioral Value Adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • MATTEO BISSIRI

    (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti S.p.a., Rome, Italy)

  • RICCARDO COGO

    (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti S.p.a., Rome, Italy)

Abstract

Assets or liabilities with embedded prepayment/extension options can be subject to behavioral risk, due to the unpredictable exercise strategy followed by the option holder who does not act purely on the strength of financial convenience. When seen from the viewpoint of the option seller, such behavior results in a lower option value and an additional source of uncertainty in future cash flows. In this paper, we propose a general framework to model behavioral risk by taking advantage of a full parallel with credit portfolio modeling and by combining the features of option-based and intensity models. Our approach is micro-structural, meaning that the aggregate prepayment rate derives from the sum of individual decisions. In principle, a detailed characterization of the behavior of a pool of investors can be performed depending on available data. A particular emphasis is placed on the precise definition of behavioral risk and on the modeling of nonmarket factors, which may contribute significantly to the variance of future cash flows. Finally, we discuss the calibration of a behavioral risk premium and the pricing of contracts with embedded options by introducing the concept of behavioral risk adjustment (βVA), in line with the recent development of XVA methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Bissiri & Riccardo Cogo, 2017. "Behavioral Value Adjustments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-37, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:08:n:s0219024917500509
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024917500509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024917500509
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219024917500509?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erwin Charlier & Arjan Van Bussel, 2003. "Prepayment Behavior of Dutch Mortgagors: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-204, June.
    2. Andrew Kalotay & Deane Yang & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2004. "An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model For Mortgages And Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 949-978.
    3. Davidson, Andrew & Levin, Alexander, 2014. "Mortgage Valuation Models: Embedded Options, Risk, and Uncertainty," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199998166.
    4. Antoon Pelsser & Mitja Stadje, 2014. "Time-Consistent And Market-Consistent Evaluations," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 25-65, January.
    5. Andreas Kolbe & Rudi Zagst, 2009. "Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities and Mortgage Derivatives: A Closed-Form Approximation," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 401-427.
    6. James Kau & Donald Keenan & Alexey Smurov, 2006. "Reduced Form Mortgage Pricing as an Alternative to Option-Pricing Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 183-196, November.
    7. Andreas Kolbe & Rudi Zagst, 2008. "A Hybrid-Form Model For The Prepayment-Risk-Neutral Valuation Of Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(06), pages 635-656.
    8. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    10. Gan, Jumwu, 2009. "Burnout from pools to loans: Modeling refinancing prepayments as a self-selection process," MPRA Paper 15596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Xavier Gabaix & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Olivier Vigneron, 2007. "Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage‐Backed Securities Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 557-595, April.
    12. Stadje, M.A. & Pelsser, A., 2014. "Time-Consistent and Market-Consistent Evaluations (Revised version of 2012-086)," Other publications TiSEM 0841e78f-a73b-42c1-b7d4-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Andrew Green & Chris Kenyon, 2014. "KVA: Capital Valuation Adjustment," Papers 1405.0515, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
    14. Mikhail Chernov & Brett R. Dunn & Francis A. Longstaff, 2018. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1132-1183.
    15. Yevgeny Goncharov, 2006. "An Intensity-Based Approach To The Valuation Of Mortgage Contracts And Computation Of The Endogenous Mortgage Rate," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(06), pages 889-914.
    16. Francis A. Longstaff, 2005. "Borrower Credit and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 619-661, December.
    17. Vasiliki D. Skintzi & Apostolos‐Paul N. Refenes, 2005. "Implied correlation index: A new measure of diversification," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 171-197, February.
    18. Dai, Min & Kwok, Yue Kuen & You, Hong, 2007. "Intensity-based framework and penalty formulation of optimal stopping problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3860-3880, December.
    19. Dunn, Kenneth B & McConnell, John J, 1981. "Valuation of GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 599-616, June.
    20. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    2. Nicola Fusari & Wei Li & Haoyang Liu & Zhaogang Song, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Cohort‐Based Trading in MBS Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3249-3287, December.
    3. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    4. Peter Diep & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Scott Richardson, 2021. "The Cross Section of MBS Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2093-2151, October.
    5. Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John D. & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Optimal Mortgage Reï¬ nancing: A Closed Form Solution," Scholarly Articles 9918811, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Scott Robertson & Zhe Cheng, 2015. "Endogenous Current Coupons," Papers 1510.02010, arXiv.org.
    7. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
    8. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Individual investors and suboptimal early exercises in the fixed-income market," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 14, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    10. Hui Chen & Michael Michaux & Nikolai Roussanov, 2020. "Houses as ATMs: Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 323-375, February.
    11. Zhe Cheng & Scott Robertson, 2017. "Endogenous current coupons," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1027-1071, October.
    12. Bilgi Yilmaz & A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel, 2019. "Computation of Hedging Coefficients for Mortgage Default and Prepayment Options: Malliavin Calculus Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 673-697, November.
    13. Nicola Fusari & Wei Li & Haoyang Liu & Zhaogang Song, 2020. "Asset Pricing with Cohort-Based Trading in MBS Markets," Staff Reports 931, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Duarte, Jefferson & Longstaff, Francis A. & Yu, Fan, 2005. "Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6zx6m7fp, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Jean-David Fermanian, 2013. "A Top-Down Approach for Asset-Backed Securities: A Consistent Way of Managing Prepayment, Default and Interest Rate Risks," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 480-515, April.
    16. Mikhail Chernov & Brett R. Dunn & Francis A. Longstaff, 2018. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1132-1183.
    17. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2016. "Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(5), pages 1220-1253.
    18. Yongheng Deng & Peng Liu, 2009. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Behavior with Embedded Forward Contract Risks in China’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 214-240, April.
    19. Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Arlene Wong, 2022. "State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy: The Refinancing Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(3), pages 721-761, March.
    20. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Scott Robertson, 2020. "Mortgage Contracts and Underwater Default," Papers 2005.03554, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:08:n:s0219024917500509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.