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Modelling industrial dynamics with "History-friendly" simulations

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  • Garavaglia, Christian

Abstract

The use of simulation techniques has increased greatly in recent years. In economics the industrial dynamics approach makes use of simulation techniques to understand the complexity of the industrial process of continuous change. Among these models, a new branch of studies known as "History-friendly" models aims at establishing a close link between formal theory, developing stand-alone theoretical simulation models, and empirical evidence. In this paper, we study "History-friendly" analyses and counterfactuals. Some examples of "History-friendly" models are widely examined. Finally, the paper makes a critical contribution to "History-friendly" methodology and defines the role of "History-friendly" models in the debate on the empirical validation of simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Garavaglia, Christian, 2010. "Modelling industrial dynamics with "History-friendly" simulations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 258-275, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:258-275
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    2. Igor Gurkov & Michael J. Morley, 2021. "Looking In The Rear-View Mirror: A Thirty-Five Year Retrospective On The Russian Automotive Industry," HSE Working papers WP BRP 64/MAN/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Christian Garavaglia & Franco Malerba & Luigi Orsenigo & Michele Pezzoni, 2013. "Technological Regimes and Demand Structure in the Evolution of the Pharmaceutical Industry," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Esben Sloth Andersen (ed.), Long Term Economic Development, edition 127, pages 61-94, Springer.
    4. Garavaglia Christian & Malerba Franco & Orsenigo Luigi & Pezzoni Michele, 2014. "Innovation and Market Structure in Pharmaceuticals: An Econometric Analysis on Simulated Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(2-3), pages 274-298, April.
    5. Marcelo De Carvalho Pereira, 2014. "When Competition May Hinder Technologydiffusion: The Case Of Internet Access Services In Brazil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 152, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Roberto Fontana & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2015. "“…then came Cisco, and the rest is history”: a ‘history friendly’ model of the Local Area Networking industry," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 875-899, November.
    7. Herrmann, J.K. & Savin, I., 2017. "Optimal policy identification: Insights from the German electricity market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 71-90.
    8. Herrmann, Johannes & Savin, Ivan, 2015. "Evolution of the electricity market in Germany: Identifying policy implications by an agent-based model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112959, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Peili Yu & Junguo Shi & Bert M. Sadowski & Önder Nomaler, 2020. "Catching Up in the Face of Technological Discontinuity: Exploring the Role of Demand Structure and Technological Regimes in the Transition from 2G to 3G in China," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 815-841, July.
    10. Chao Bi & Jingjing Zeng & Wanli Zhang & Yonglin Wen, 2020. "Modelling the Coevolution of the Fuel Ethanol Industry, Technology System, and Market System in China: A History-Friendly Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Landini, Fabio & Lee, Keun & Malerba, Franco, 2017. "A history-friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch-up by latecomers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 431-446.
    12. Alessandro Caiani, 2017. "Innovation Dynamics and Industry Structure Under Different Technological Spaces," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 307-341, November.
    13. Gianluca Capone & Franco Malerba & Richard R. Nelson & Luigi Orsenigo & Sidney G. Winter, 2019. "History friendly models: retrospective and future perspectives," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    14. Juana Castro & Stefan Drews & Filippos Exadaktylos & Joël Foramitti & Franziska Klein & Théo Konc & Ivan Savin & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2020. "A review of agent‐based modeling of climate‐energy policy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.

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