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The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?

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  • Dennis Coates

    (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)

  • Babatunde Oguntimein

    (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)

Abstract

This paper uses data on players drafted in 1987 through 1989 covering both their collegiate and their professional careers. This time period is chosen because we wanted recent players whose playing days have ended. Our analysis evaluates the role of college productivity on draft position and the relationship between college career productivity, measured by individual performance statistics and as productivity indexes, with professional career productivity measured similarly and with the length of the career. At issue is the effectiveness of NBA executives in identifying college players who will be successful in the pros. The results suggest that some college productivity significantly influences draft position and that the nature of that influence differs with the nature of the college conference from which a player is taken. Draft position also affects the length of a player’s career, with earlier draftees having longer careers.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Coates & Babatunde Oguntimein, 2010. "The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes?," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(1), pages 4-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:5:y:2010:i:1:p:4-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camerer, Colin F. & Weber, Roberto A., 1999. "The econometrics and behavioral economics of escalation of commitment: a re-examination of Staw and Hoang's NBA data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-82, May.
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    4. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H.O. & Coburn, Jason & Rankins, Timothy, 2010. "Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 589-605, July.
    5. Peter A. Groothuis & James Richard Hill & Timothy J. Perri, 2007. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 223-243, June.
    6. Peter Groothuis & Richard Hill & Timothy Perri, 2004. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft: The Influence of Unraveling, Human Capital and Option Value," Working Papers 04-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005.
    7. Stephen J. Spurr, 2000. "The Baseball Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(1), pages 66-85, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichniowski, Casey & Preston, Anne, 2017. "Does March Madness lead to irrational exuberance in the NBA draft? High-value employee selection decisions and decision-making bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 105-119.
    2. Chandler Gabriel & Stevens Guy, 2012. "An Exploratory Study of Minor League Baseball Statistics," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-28, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NBA; draft; production; rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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