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Causality between Money, Prices and Output in India (1951-2005): A Granger Causality Approach

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  • Gaurang Rami

Abstract

The relationship between money, price and output is one of the most debated issues among different schools of thought of economics particularly between the Monetarists and Keynesians. The Monetarists argue that money influences the prices and the output, whereas the Keynesians argue that money does not influence the same. Direction of causality among these three and selection of appropriate lag length are widely debated issues in the literature. This study examines the relationship between money, price and output using pairwise Granger causality test on annual data of the Indian economy covering a period from 1951 to 2005. Lag length is selected using standard criteria - LR, FPE, AIC, SC and HQ through VAR estimation. The results strongly support the monetarists view and partially supports the Keynesian view. However, these relationships are sensitive to the lag length selections.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaurang Rami, 2010. "Causality between Money, Prices and Output in India (1951-2005): A Granger Causality Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 20-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:2:p:20-41
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    1. Kalbe Abbas & Fazal Husain, 2006. "Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 7(1), pages 55-65, March.
    2. Brillembourg, Arturo & Khan, Mohsin S, 1979. "The Relationship between Money, Income, and Prices: Has Money Mattered Historically? A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 358-365, August.
    3. Kalbe Abbas, 1991. "Causality Test between Money and Income: A Case Study of Selected Developing Asian Countries (1960-1988)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 919-929.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tafajul Hossain & Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in India Under Monetary-targeting and Multiple-indicator Approach Regimes," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(1), pages 108-124, June.
    3. Makin, Anthony J. & Robson, Alex & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2017. "Missing money found causing Australia's inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 156-162.
    4. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "On the Temporal Causal Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 46803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Srinivasan Palamalai & Kalaivani Mariappan & Christopher Devakumar, 2014. "On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(1), pages 21582440145, February.

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