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On the Temporal Causal Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Evidence from India

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  • P., Srinivasan
  • M., Kalaivani

Abstract

The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate and exchange rate in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, interest rate and exchange rate during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to exchange rate, interest rate to price level and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and exchange rate, price level and interest rate in the pre-crisis era. In addition, the feedback relationship is also observed between interest rate and exchange rate variables in the short-run. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, exchange rate and interest rate during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and exchange rate, interest rate and price level and interest rate and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "On the Temporal Causal Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 46803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helmut Herwartz & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Long‐Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86, February.
    2. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016. "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 57-86, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic variables; Cointegration; Causality; Variance Decomposition Analysis; Impulse Response Functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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