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Identifying critical technologies in the United States: a review of the federal effort

Author

Listed:
  • Steven W. Popper

    (The Science & Technology Policy Institute at RAND, Arlington, VA and Santa Monica, CA)

  • Caroline S. Wagner

    (The Science & Technology Policy Institute at RAND, Arlington, VA and Santa Monica, CA)

Abstract

The United States government has not sponsored technology foresight as it has been defined and practised by governments in Europe, Japan and elsewhere in the world. [Foresight has been described in many places, but the original concept, as far as the authors are aware, was proposed by Martin and Irvine (1989).] [Different approaches to identifying important technologies is summarized in Wagner (1997).] Instead, the US government sponsored a parallel effort called 'critical technologies identification' between 1989 and 1999. This paper describes the critical technologies movement in the United States and explores why critical technologies identification was limited in its ability to capture the attention of US government officials and other decision-makers. The authors suggest possible alternative futures for foresight in the United States. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven W. Popper & Caroline S. Wagner, 2003. "Identifying critical technologies in the United States: a review of the federal effort," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 113-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:113-128
    DOI: 10.1002/for.854
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Strategic Trade Policy and the New International Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262610450, December.
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    3. Melkers, Julia & Roessner, David, 1997. "Politics and the political setting as an influence on evaluation activities: National research and technology policy programs in the United States and Canada," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 57-75, February.
    4. Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-973, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kroll, Henning & Ferrante, Chiara, 2024. "Redefining criticality in a changing world: Combining domestic and global perspectives on enabling technologies," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 86, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    2. Tommi Gustafsson & Ahti Salo & Ramakrishnan Ramanathan, 2003. "Multicriteria methods for technology foresight," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 235-255.
    3. Shin, Juneseuk & Park, Yongtae, 2007. "Building the national ICT frontier: The case of Korea," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 249-277, June.
    4. Danilin, I. & Sidorova, E., 2024. "The concept of technological sovereignty in the transforming world," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 238-243.

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