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Macroeconomic Factors of Emerging Stock Market: The Evidence from Thailand

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  • Nopphon Tangjitprom

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the importance of macroeconomic factors to determine the performance of stock market. The regression analysis is used to examine this relationship. The result shows that macroeconomic variables can explain stock return significantly after adjusting for some lags of data availability. Moreover, the lead-lag relationship is examined by Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality test. They reveal that macroeconomic variables are less important to predict future stock return whereas stock return can be used to predict macroeconomic variables more. In the other word, stock return is good candidate as a leading economic indicator. Finally, the variance decomposition technique reveals that interest rate is the most important macroeconomic variable to explain the variance in stock return. However, it is clearly noticed that all macroeconomic variables can explain only a little variance in stock return.

Suggested Citation

  • Nopphon Tangjitprom, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors of Emerging Stock Market: The Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 105-114, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:3:y:2012:i:2:p:105-114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dolinar, Denis & Orsag, Silvije & Suman, Paola, 2015. "Test Of The Chen-Roll-Ross Macroeconomic Factor Model: Evidence From Croatian Stock Market," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 6(2), pages 185-196.
    2. Thuy Thu Nguyen & Hong Thi Mai & Tram Thi Minh Tran, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for the Case of Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(7), pages 758-777, July.
    3. Muinde Patrick Mumo, 2017. "Effects of Macroeconomic Volatility on Stock Prices in Kenya: A Cointegration Evidence from the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Subrata ROY, 2020. "Foreign trade policy and economic growth: Indian evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 107-126, Autumn.

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