IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jed/journl/v37y2012i1p29-51.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Error-Correction Analysis Of India-Us Trade Flows

Author

Listed:
  • AVIRAL KUMAR TIWARI

    (ICFAI University Tripura)

Abstract

The study finds that India¡¯s exports to the US have been significantly affected by GDP per capita of the US, WPI of the India and the US, and exchange rate; and India¡¯s import from the US is significantly affected the India¡¯s GDP and WPI in the long-run. Static analysis of causality asserts that WPI of the US Granger causes the India¡¯s exports to the US and the GDP of the US. Further, WPI of the India Granger causes the GDP of the US and the exchange rate Granger causes WPI of the US. Moreover, GDP of the India Granger causes her imports from the US; and WPI of the India and exchange rate Granger cause WPI of the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "An Error-Correction Analysis Of India-Us Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 29-51, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:37:y:2012:i:1:p:29-51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jed.or.kr/full-text/37-1/2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    3. Hyun Joung Jin & Won W. Koo & Bongsik Sul, 2006. "The Effects Of The Free Trade Agreement Among China, Japan And South Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 55-72, December.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2008. "Relative Responsiveness Of Trade Flows To A Change In Prices And Exchange Rate In Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 147-163, June.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Nadenichek, Jon, 2000. "The Japan-US trade imbalance: a real business cycle perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 255-271, September.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510.
    9. Serge Rey, 2006. "Effective Exchange Rate Volatility And Mena Countries Exports To The Eu," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 23-54, December.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2006. "How sensitive are Malaysia's bilateral trade flows to depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1279-1286.
    11. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard L Sprinkle, 2005. "An Error Correction Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Trade Flows," International Trade 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Orhan Kara, 2003. "Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 293-308.
    13. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    14. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    15. Tsangyao Chang & Yuan-Hong Ho & Chiung-Ju Huang, 2005. "A Reexamination Of South Korea¡¯S Aggregate Import Demand Function: The Bounds Test Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 119-128, June.
    16. Marial Awou Yol & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2007. "Estimating Exchange Rate And Bilateral Trade Balance Relationships: The Experience Of Sub‐Saharan African Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(1), pages 35-51, March.
    17. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    18. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    19. Renan Zhuang & Won W. Koo, 2008. "Implications Of U.S. Free Trade Agreement With South Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 27-44, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phocenah Nyatanga, 2017. "Zimbabwe’s Trade Performance Under Alternative Trade Policy Regimes," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(2), pages 90-105, May.
    2. Aviral Tiwari, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Australia: evidence using nonlinear and stationarity tests with breaks," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 681-695, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    3. Yaya Keho, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Dynamics in Cote d Ivoire," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 61-70.
    4. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    6. Levent, Korap, 2006. "Seigniorage revenue and Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 20106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    9. Jahangir Alam, Mohammad & Ara Begum, Ismat & Buysse, Jeroen & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2012. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 217-225.
    10. Korap, Levent, 2011. "A closer look at the money multipliers for the Turkish economy: Is there a stable relationship?," MPRA Paper 40778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. M. Abimbola Oyinlola & Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Olusegun Omisakin, 2010. "Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 3(2), pages 123-141, December.
    12. Swamy, Vighneswara & S, Sreejesh, 2012. "Financial Instability, Uncertainty and Banks’ Lending Behaviour," MPRA Paper 47518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nela Vlahinic & Pavle Jakovac, 2014. "Revisiting the Energy Consumption-Growth Nexus for Croatia: New Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(4), December.
    14. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Testing causal relationships between energy consumption, real income and prices: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 21834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tan, Bee Wah & Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "The dynamic relationship between private domestic investment, the user cost of capital, and economic growth in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 27964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. David Matesanz & Guadalupe Fugarolas, 2009. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2571-2582.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3529-3536, June.
    18. Tiwari, Aviral, 2010. "Impact of supply of money on food prices in India: A causality analysis," MPRA Paper 24679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Perekunah Eregha & Arcade Ndoricimpa & Solomon Olakojo & Mamello Nchake & Owen Nyang'oro & Edith Togba, 2016. "Nigeria: Should the Government Float or Devalue the Naira?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 247-263, September.
    20. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral Trade; Granger-Causality; IRFs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:37:y:2012:i:1:p:29-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sung Y. Park (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eccaukr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.