IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jed/journl/v27y2002i2p69-79.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Who Is Benefiting The Most From Nafta? An Intervention Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rock-Antoine Mehanna

    (Department of Business Administration & Economics, Wartburg College)

  • Hannarong Shamsub

    (International College of the Cayman Islands)

Abstract

Unlike previous studies on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which examined either trade or income effects by using forecasted trade values, this paper investigates the impact of NAFTA on both bilateral trade and income of each member country - US, Canada, and Mexico - by using historical data. This paper covers time series data before and after NAFTA was formed, from 1980 to 1999. We consider NAFTA as a prolonged impulse function in international trade activities among the three trading partners by employing an intervention-function model. Findings reveal that NAFTA increases bilateral trade between US-Canada and US-Mexico, and in terms of income, NAFTA benefits Canada the most ¡°certainly¡±. To substantiate these findings, Granger causality analysis is employed, which in turn supports our intervention-function results.

Suggested Citation

  • Rock-Antoine Mehanna & Hannarong Shamsub, 2002. "Who Is Benefiting The Most From Nafta? An Intervention Time Series Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 69-79, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:69-79
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jed.or.kr/full-text/27-2/mehanna.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 18(Spr), pages 17-34.
    2. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
    3. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2011. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and a Computational Assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 40, pages 557-575, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Gilbert Gagné, 2000. "North American Free Trade, Canada, and US Trade Remedies: An Assessment After Ten Years," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 77-91, January.
    5. Horacio E. Sobarzo, 1992. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Gains from Trade for the Mexican Economy of a North American Free Trade Agreement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, January.
    6. Markusen, James R. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Hunter, Linda, 1995. "Trade liberalization in a multinational-dominated industry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 95-117, February.
    7. David Cox & Richard G. Harris, 1992. "North American Free Trade and its Implications for Canada: Results from a CGE Model of North American Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 31-44, January.
    8. Arvind Panagariya, 1996. "The Free Trade Area of the Americas: Good for Latin America?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 485-515, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Janko & Janusz Kokoszewski, 2013. "An Intervention Time Series Analysis: Specialization and Competitiveness in Sports”," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2177-2190.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Volatility And Industry Trade Between The U.S. And Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Impact of Unilateral and Regional Trade Liberalisation on the Intra-ASEAN 5 Founding Nations' Exports and Export-GDP Nexus," Economics Working Papers wp05-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1998. "Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects," Working Paper Series WP-98-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "A dynamic macroeconomic analysis of NAFTA," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 21(Jan), pages 14-35.
    3. Murray G Smith, 2011. "The North American Free Trade Agreement: Fait Accompli?," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Naoto Jinji & Xingyuan Zhang & Shoji Haruna, 2012. "The Effect of Regional Trade Agreements on Technology Spillovers through International Trade," Discussion papers e-11-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    5. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Rossbach, Jack & Ruhl, Kim J., 2015. "Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 289-297.
    6. Braga, Carlos A. Primo & Safadi, Raed & Yeats, Alexa, 1994. "NAFTA's Implications for East Asian exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1351, The World Bank.
    7. Fox, Alan & Shikher, Serge & Tsigas, Marinos, 2015. "Predicting the effects of NAFTA with the BDS, GTAP, and EK models," Conference papers 332563, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-20.
    9. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy M. Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2005. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 35-81, Springer.
    11. Schiff,Maurice & Wang, Yanling, 2003. "Regional integration and technology diffusion : the case of the North America free trade agreement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3132, The World Bank.
    12. Maurice Schiff & Yanling Wang, 2004. "Regional Integration And North-South Technology Diffusion: The Case of Nafta," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 283, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 291-316, November.
    14. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Maurice Schiff & Yanling Wang, 2003. "Nafta, Technology Diffusion and Productivity in Mexico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 469-476.
    16. Kimakova, Alena & Rajabiun, Reza, 1999. "An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of EU Integration for Hungary and Slovakia," Transition Economics Series 9, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    17. Mustafizur Rahman & Wasel Bin Shadat & Narayan Chandra Das, 2006. "Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model," CPD Working Paper 61, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    18. World Bank Group, 2016. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23435.
    19. Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Koschel, Henrike, 1998. "Modelling of foreign trade in applied general equilibrium models: theoretical approaches and sensitivity analysis with the GEM-E3 model," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-08, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. ADKINS Liwayway G. & GARBACCIO Richard F., 2010. "Simulating the Effects of the FTAA on Global Carbon Emissions: A General Equilibrium Analysis," EcoMod2003 330700000, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAFTA; Intervention-function Model; Time Series Analysis; Granger Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:69-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sung Y. Park (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eccaukr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.