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Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform

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  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Jack M. Rossbach
  • Kim J. Ruhl

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Kehoe & Jack M. Rossbach & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform," NBER Working Papers 19692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19692
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    Cited by:

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    2. Delahaye, Elliot & Milot, Catherine, 2020. "Measuring the UK Economy’s Armington Elasticities," Conference papers 333170, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Arjad Abbas Khosa & Yoshinori Kurokawa & Zhengfei Yu, 2021. "Impact of Trade on Industry-Level Output," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2021-003, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    4. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    5. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Sharat Ganapati, 2020. "Aggregate Implications of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models," Working Papers 2020-161, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    6. French, Scott & Zylkin, Tom, 2024. "The effects of free trade agreements on product-level trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolas & Jack Rossbach, 2018. "Improving the Analysis of Trade Policy," Economic Policy Paper 18-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Carter Mix, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects Of Multilateral Trade Policy With Export Churning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 653-689, May.
    9. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    10. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    11. Anson Soderbery, 2021. "Trade restrictiveness indexes and welfare: A structural approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1018-1045, November.
    12. Zhe Chen & Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2023. "The Value Added-Exports Puzzle and Global Value Chains," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2023-001, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    13. Cavallari, Lilia & D'Addona, Stefano, 2017. "Output stabilization in fixed and floating regimes: Does trade of new products matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 365-383.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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